Energy planning is a fundamental tool for meeting the energy needs of a nation and it is accomplished by considering multiple factors such as resource availability, costs and efficiency technologies, environmental impact and energy demand. Energy demand modelling is an essential component in order to achieve an appropriate and robust energy planning. This thesis deals firstly with the review of energy planning case studies highlighting the methodological diversities for the main dimensions that characterise different approaches in the framework of off-grid systems for rural areas in developing countries. Then the analysis focuses on techniques to forecast electricity demand for long-term energy planning with the aim to identify firstly the more used models and secondly the appropriate features and key requirements for a better evaluation of electricity demand in local areas. The study finds that end-use accounting approach should produce more realistic electricity demand projections within these contexts, while different methods may lead to different results both in terms of investment cost and installed capacity. Based on the achievements obtained by the critical review of energy demand models, a bottom-up approach is designed for a case study in an Indian village. The model has been conceived with collaboration of UNESCO Chair in energy for Sustainable Development research group - Department of Energy. Three scenarios are developed to compare different approaches of demand evolution over years, namely a bottom-up, constant and time-based interpolation forecasting techniques. The three scenarios computed are entered in a long-term energy system optimization model, namely OSeMOSYS. The simulation performed with the different demand approaches aimed to investigate quantitative how the various demand profile impact over years on the energy planning of a case study selected for India. Data of costs, efficiencies and availability of resources are entered to simulate the reference energy system selected. Results prove that various forecasting electricity demand impact differently both in term of total discounted cost and capacity installed.
La pianificazione energetica è uno strumento importante per valutare il sistema energetico migliore al fine di soddisfare la domanda di energia di una determinata regione; la realizzazione di tale sistema coinvolge molteplici fattori tra cui le risorse disponibili in loco, costi e prestazioni delle tecnologie coinvolte nella progettazione, impatto ambientale e la domanda energetica da soddisfare. La modellazione della domanda energetica è un elemento essenziale per ottenere una pianificazione energetica adeguata e robusta. Questa tesi si propone di investigare quali sono i modelli di previsione di domanda elettrica per una pianificazione energetica di contesti rurali e di identificare i requisiti necessari per un approccio più appropriato ai contesti rurali per i paesi in via di sviluppo. È stata eseguita un’ampia revisione di letteratura riguardante i casi studio di pianificazione energetica per il dimensionamento di sistemi off-grid per aree rurali. La revisione si pone l’obiettivo di comprendere come venga considerata effettivamente la domanda energetica in questi contesti; da essa emerge come l’evoluzione del consumo energetico per una pianificazione di lungo periodo venga considerato in modo semplicistico (trend di crescita arbitrari) o del tutto trascurato. In seguito, sono stati identificati i requisiti principali per la modellazione di un approccio bottom-up per la previsione a lungo termine della domanda elettrica del settore residenziale codificato in Matlab e integrato ad un modello esistente per la generazione di profili di carico elettrico giornaliero in un villaggio in India. Altri due scenari di crescita della domanda sono stati sviluppati per il villaggio analizzato come termine di confronto, selezionati alla luce della precedente revisione. I tre scenari di domanda sono stati in seguito inseriti come input in OSeMOSYS, un modello di ottimizzazione lineare per la pianificazione a lungo termine di sistemi energetici. I risultati ottenuti mostrano come vari approcci di previsione della domanda elettrica impattano diversamente sia in termini di costo finale sia maggiormente in termini di capacità installata.
Energy demand analysis within long-term rural energy planning : a critical review and simulation for a more appropriate modelling approach
TOGNOLLO, ANNALISA
2015/2016
Abstract
Energy planning is a fundamental tool for meeting the energy needs of a nation and it is accomplished by considering multiple factors such as resource availability, costs and efficiency technologies, environmental impact and energy demand. Energy demand modelling is an essential component in order to achieve an appropriate and robust energy planning. This thesis deals firstly with the review of energy planning case studies highlighting the methodological diversities for the main dimensions that characterise different approaches in the framework of off-grid systems for rural areas in developing countries. Then the analysis focuses on techniques to forecast electricity demand for long-term energy planning with the aim to identify firstly the more used models and secondly the appropriate features and key requirements for a better evaluation of electricity demand in local areas. The study finds that end-use accounting approach should produce more realistic electricity demand projections within these contexts, while different methods may lead to different results both in terms of investment cost and installed capacity. Based on the achievements obtained by the critical review of energy demand models, a bottom-up approach is designed for a case study in an Indian village. The model has been conceived with collaboration of UNESCO Chair in energy for Sustainable Development research group - Department of Energy. Three scenarios are developed to compare different approaches of demand evolution over years, namely a bottom-up, constant and time-based interpolation forecasting techniques. The three scenarios computed are entered in a long-term energy system optimization model, namely OSeMOSYS. The simulation performed with the different demand approaches aimed to investigate quantitative how the various demand profile impact over years on the energy planning of a case study selected for India. Data of costs, efficiencies and availability of resources are entered to simulate the reference energy system selected. Results prove that various forecasting electricity demand impact differently both in term of total discounted cost and capacity installed.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/124782