More than 60 years have passed since the launch of the first satellite launched into orbit and therefore the birth of the Space Economy. Since that time many things have changed, and significant steps forward have been made for the exploitation of space. The space sector has evolved rapidly from the first satellite launched in 1957 by the Soviet Union we have arrived at future projects for the creation of constellations composed of 47,000 satellites (Starlink project). Considerable progress has also been made in terms of accessibility to space, bringing the cost of launching satellites from just under $55,000/kg to the $2,720/kg offered by SpaceX and its Falcon 9 spacecraft. Elon Musk's company manages to offer the cheapest price on the market, on the other, Europe does not seem to be able to keep up with SpaceX's innovations and therefore struggles to cut production costs and thus make access to space more accessible. The purpose of this thesis is therefore to understand what factors are able to influence the price of a mission, and once identified understand how and how much they impact on the final price of the service. In particular, the interest falls on the ability of SpaceX (a new entrant) to offer a service equal to that of many other companies, but at less than half the price (sometimes even a third). To do this, the starting point was the creation of a dataset containing information regarding space launches that occurred between 2015 and 2020. Once constructed, a descriptive analysis was performed on individual variables and cross variables in order to define any trends. A linear regression model was then applied to determine the statistically significant variables that could have an impact on the price of a mission. Lastly, groupings were performed using K-Means clustering to visualize the distinction of spacecraft based on their price.
Sono ormai passati più di 60 anni dal lancio del primo satellite lanciato in orbita e quindi dalla nascita della Space Economy. Da quel momento numerose cose sono cambiate e notevoli passi avanti sono stati fatti per lo sfruttamento dello spazio. Il settore dello spazio si è evoluto così in fretta che dal primo satellite lanciato nel 1957 dall'Unione Sovietica siamo arrivati a progetti futuri di creazione di costellazioni composte da 47'000 satelliti (progetto Starlink). Notevoli progressi poi stati fatti anche in termini di accessibilità allo spazio, portando il costo per lanciare satelliti da poco meno di 55'000$/kg ai 2'720$/kg offerti da SpaceX e dal suo veicolo spaziale: il Falcon 9. Se da un lato, infatti, l'azienda di Elon Musk riesce ad offrire il prezzo più economico sul mercato, dall'altro l'Europa non sembra essere in grado di stare al passo con le innovazioni di SpaceX e quindi fatica a tagliare i costi di produzione e quindi rendere più accessibile l'accesso allo spazio. Lo scopo di questa tesi è quindi quello di capire quali fattori sono in grado di influenzare il prezzo di una missione, ed una volta identificati capire come e quanto pesano sul prezzo finale del servizio. In particolar modo l'interesse ricade sulla capacità di SpaceX (una nuova entrata) di riuscire ad offrire un servizio pari a quello di molte altre compagnie, ma a meno della metà del prezzo (talvolta addirittura ad un terzo). Per fare ciò, il punto di partenza è stata la creazione di un dataset contenete informazioni riguardo ai lanci spaziali avvenuti tra il 2015 ed il 2020. Una volta costruito è stata svolta un'analisi descrittiva sulle singole variabili e su variabili incrociate per poter definire eventuali tendenze. In seguito, invece è stato applicato un modello di regressione lineare per poter determinare le variabili statisticamente significative in grado di avere un impatto sul prezzo di una missione. Per ultima cosa sono stati eseguiti dei raggruppamenti tramite il K-Means clustering in modo tale da visualizzare la distinzione dei veicoli spaziali in base al loro prezzo.
To infinity and beyond : the ground-breaking space rockets of SpaceX
BERSANI, FEDERICO
2020/2021
Abstract
More than 60 years have passed since the launch of the first satellite launched into orbit and therefore the birth of the Space Economy. Since that time many things have changed, and significant steps forward have been made for the exploitation of space. The space sector has evolved rapidly from the first satellite launched in 1957 by the Soviet Union we have arrived at future projects for the creation of constellations composed of 47,000 satellites (Starlink project). Considerable progress has also been made in terms of accessibility to space, bringing the cost of launching satellites from just under $55,000/kg to the $2,720/kg offered by SpaceX and its Falcon 9 spacecraft. Elon Musk's company manages to offer the cheapest price on the market, on the other, Europe does not seem to be able to keep up with SpaceX's innovations and therefore struggles to cut production costs and thus make access to space more accessible. The purpose of this thesis is therefore to understand what factors are able to influence the price of a mission, and once identified understand how and how much they impact on the final price of the service. In particular, the interest falls on the ability of SpaceX (a new entrant) to offer a service equal to that of many other companies, but at less than half the price (sometimes even a third). To do this, the starting point was the creation of a dataset containing information regarding space launches that occurred between 2015 and 2020. Once constructed, a descriptive analysis was performed on individual variables and cross variables in order to define any trends. A linear regression model was then applied to determine the statistically significant variables that could have an impact on the price of a mission. Lastly, groupings were performed using K-Means clustering to visualize the distinction of spacecraft based on their price.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/179898