The analysis presents a long-term energy forecast of a rural village in South India. This study is part of the project Sanjeevani, developed by Engineering without Borders Milan, which aims to improve the socio-economic conditions of Indian farmers and to fight the increasing rate of suicides involving India and, in particular, the state of Maharashtra. Concerning the more technical part of this macro intervention, two colleagues have developed a pilot project aimed to meet the energy demand of a sample group of farmers from the village and, in parallel, this analysis evaluates the impact of this project with respect to total energy demand of the village and in terms of access to energy. For the development of the thesis it was therefore necessary to analyse the theme of energy forecasts and the tools used to conduct them, evaluating the capabilities and limitations and choosing, finally, the most appropriate for the case study. The data collection was carried out on site, through a questionnaire given to a sample group of inhabitants, the visit of some offices and personal interviews. The village has 7800 inhabitants and its economy is based on agriculture. The connection to the national grid, however, is lacking, with scheduled and unscheduled blackouts, which reduce the electricity supply to a few hours a day. Because of this lack, the farmers can not adequately irrigate their fields and have a consequent loss in harvest. The thesis then analyzes the current energy balance of the village, deepening on which fuels and in which measure they are used. Secondly the Pilot project is evaluated, which provides a photovoltaic system to irrigate the fields of 15 farmers. It is at least proposed a future forecast, until 2040, considering the growth in demand due to population and specific consumption increase and the transition from traditional to modern fuels. It is therefore analyzed the possible response to this energy requirements through a power generation given from national grid, renewables and auxiliary diesel generators.
L'analisi presenta una previsione di lungo termine della domanda energetica di un villaggio rurale situato nel sud dell’India. Tale studio si inserisce all'interno del progetto Sanjeevani, sviluppato da Ingegneria Senza Frontiere Milano, il quale mira a migliorare le condizioni socio economiche dei contadini indiani e a combattere il crescente tasso di suicidi che interessa l'India ed, in particolare, lo stato del Maharashtra. Per quanto concerne la parte più tecnica di questo macro intervento, due colleghi hanno sviluppato un progetto pilota mirato a soddisfare la domanda energetica di un gruppo campione di contadini del villaggio ed, in parallelo, la presente analisi valuta l'incidenza di tale progetto rispetto alla domanda energetica totale del villaggio ed in termini di accesso all'energia. Per lo sviluppo della tesi è quindi stato necessario approfondire il tema delle previsioni energetiche ed i mezzi utilizzati per condurle, analizzandone le capacità ed i limiti e scegliendo, infine, il più appropriato per il caso studio. La raccolta dati è stata svolta in loco, attraverso un questionario dato a un gruppo campione di abitanti, la visita di alcuni uffici ed interviste personali. Il villaggio conta 7800 abitanti e la sua economia è basata sull'agricoltura. La connessione alla rete elettrica nazionale tuttavia è carente, con blackout programmati e non, che riducono la fornitura elettrica a poche ore al giorno. A causa di questa mancanza, i contadini non possono irrigare adeguatamente i propri campi e hanno una conseguente perdita nel raccolto. La tesi analizza quindi il bilancio energetico attuale del villaggio, approfondendo quali combustibili e in che misura siano utilizzati. In secondo luogo viene valutato il progetto pilota, il quale prevede un impianto fotovoltaico per l'irrigazione dei campi di 15 agricoltori. Viene proposto infine uno scenario futuro, fino al 2040, che considera la crescita della domanda dovuta all'incremento della popolazione e dei consumi specifici e la transizione in ambito domestico da combustibili tradizionali a moderni. Si analizza quindi la possibile risposta a questa domanda attraverso una generazione elettrica data dalla rete nazionale, delle rinnovabili e di generatori diesel ausiliari.
Energy forecasting in a rural village in India
VERRE, SILVIA
2013/2014
Abstract
The analysis presents a long-term energy forecast of a rural village in South India. This study is part of the project Sanjeevani, developed by Engineering without Borders Milan, which aims to improve the socio-economic conditions of Indian farmers and to fight the increasing rate of suicides involving India and, in particular, the state of Maharashtra. Concerning the more technical part of this macro intervention, two colleagues have developed a pilot project aimed to meet the energy demand of a sample group of farmers from the village and, in parallel, this analysis evaluates the impact of this project with respect to total energy demand of the village and in terms of access to energy. For the development of the thesis it was therefore necessary to analyse the theme of energy forecasts and the tools used to conduct them, evaluating the capabilities and limitations and choosing, finally, the most appropriate for the case study. The data collection was carried out on site, through a questionnaire given to a sample group of inhabitants, the visit of some offices and personal interviews. The village has 7800 inhabitants and its economy is based on agriculture. The connection to the national grid, however, is lacking, with scheduled and unscheduled blackouts, which reduce the electricity supply to a few hours a day. Because of this lack, the farmers can not adequately irrigate their fields and have a consequent loss in harvest. The thesis then analyzes the current energy balance of the village, deepening on which fuels and in which measure they are used. Secondly the Pilot project is evaluated, which provides a photovoltaic system to irrigate the fields of 15 farmers. It is at least proposed a future forecast, until 2040, considering the growth in demand due to population and specific consumption increase and the transition from traditional to modern fuels. It is therefore analyzed the possible response to this energy requirements through a power generation given from national grid, renewables and auxiliary diesel generators.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/107918