Concerns about climate change and the problem of supply security of fossil fuels brought the German government to set the ambitious goal of covering 80% of the gross electricity consumption with renewables energies within 2050. Due to the fluctuating nature of these energy sources and grid limitations, large amounts of excess energy are likely to be available on the grid if this target is to be met. A promising use for this surplus energy is producing hydrogen to power fuel cell vehicles. Yet the successful introduction of this new technology is likely to present a barrier: car manufacturers will not produce fuel cell vehicles until filling stations start selling hydrogen, whereas the refuelling infrastructure will not develop unless a significant number of fuel cell vehicles on the road is observed. In order to overcome this obstacle, referred to as “chicken and egg problem”, policy is needed. In this master thesis, an agent-based model is implemented to investigate the effect that a tax on internal combustion engine vehicles or a subsidy for fuel cell vehicles, coupled with different refuelling infrastructure development programs, would have on the market penetration of fuel cell vehicles. Analysing this model will help gain deeper insights about how to design a policy to foster the diffusion of this new technology, making sure to minimise negative effects on consumers and on the automotive industry.
La preoccupazione per il cambiamento climatico e il problema della sicurezza dell’approvvigionamento energetico hanno portato il governo tedesco a stabilire l’ambizioso obiettivo di coprire l’80% del consumo elettrico con le energie rinnovabili entro il 2050. A causa dei vincoli della rete elettrica e della variabilità di queste fonti, grandi quantità di energia in eccesso sarebbero presenti sulla rete se questi obiettivi fossero raggiunti. Una promettente soluzione per l’utilizzo di questa energia è la produzione d’idrogeno da usare come combustibile in veicoli fuel cell. La diffusione dei veicoli a idrogeno presenta tuttavia un ostacolo: le case automobilistiche non cominceranno a produrre veicoli fuel cell fino a quando un determinato numero di stazioni di rifornimento non comincerà a vendere idrogeno, mentre l’infrastruttura per l’idrogeno non si svilupperà finché non sarà possibile osservare un numero significativo di veicoli fuel cell sulle strade. Questo ostacolo, cosiddetto dilemma “uovo-gallina”, può essere superato con l’aiuto di politiche incentivanti. In questa tesi un modello basato su agenti è stato implementato al fine di analizzare l’effetto che una tassa sui veicoli con motore a combustione interna o un sussidio per i veicoli fuel cell, abbinati con un piano di sviluppo dell’infrastruttura per il rifornimento d’idrogeno, avrebbe sulla diffusione dei veicoli fuel cell. Analizzare questo modello aiuterà ad acquisire le conoscenze necessarie a sviluppare un’efficace politica incentivante, limitando gli effetti negativi sui consumatori e sull’industria dell’auto.
Agent-based modelling analysis of the market penetration of fuel cell vehicles in Germany
DELLI COMPAGNI, SIMONE
2014/2015
Abstract
Concerns about climate change and the problem of supply security of fossil fuels brought the German government to set the ambitious goal of covering 80% of the gross electricity consumption with renewables energies within 2050. Due to the fluctuating nature of these energy sources and grid limitations, large amounts of excess energy are likely to be available on the grid if this target is to be met. A promising use for this surplus energy is producing hydrogen to power fuel cell vehicles. Yet the successful introduction of this new technology is likely to present a barrier: car manufacturers will not produce fuel cell vehicles until filling stations start selling hydrogen, whereas the refuelling infrastructure will not develop unless a significant number of fuel cell vehicles on the road is observed. In order to overcome this obstacle, referred to as “chicken and egg problem”, policy is needed. In this master thesis, an agent-based model is implemented to investigate the effect that a tax on internal combustion engine vehicles or a subsidy for fuel cell vehicles, coupled with different refuelling infrastructure development programs, would have on the market penetration of fuel cell vehicles. Analysing this model will help gain deeper insights about how to design a policy to foster the diffusion of this new technology, making sure to minimise negative effects on consumers and on the automotive industry.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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2016_04_Delli Compagni.pdf
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/118269