The Individual Savings Plans (PIR) launched by the Italian Government via the 2017 Budget Law are a new form of investment – characterized by fiscal benefits for holders – whose main objective is to channel financial flows towards the productive activities of Italian SMEs in order to promote the economic development of the country. After an exhaustive and comprehensive presentation of the new Italian Individual Savings Plans and their reception in Italy, this dissertation gives one of the first quantitative contributions to the almost nonexistent academic literature on the topic, analyzing the impact of PIR on the Italian Stock Exchange (or Borsa Italiana) in terms of stock returns, trading volumes, bid-ask spreads, and equity capital raised by Italian companies through IPOs and capital increases in 2017. An analysis of CARs and BHARs reveals a strong positive PIR impact in terms of extra-returns for SMEs stocks – mainly on the ones listed on AIM Italia or on MTA market, but not on the STAR segment – starting from January 2017, while the effect is anticipated by one month for companies listed on the STAR segment. Difference-In-Differences models and t-tests are employed to analyze the impact on trading volumes and bid-ask spreads. For what concerns trading volumes, there are a positive direct PIR effect for SMEs and a positive indirect one, linked to increasing market capitalization (as returns increase); moreover, findings suggest PIR generated a “cannibalization” effect for stocks of larger Italian listed companies. As for bid-ask spreads, a decrease for both listed SMEs and FTSE MIB constituents in 2017 is found. Finally, the study highlights a sharp increase in the equity capital collected on AIM Italia by listed SMEs in 2017, identifying early signals of the capability of PIR in stimulating small and medium-sized enterprises to get listed and collect funds issuing new shares on the stock exchange as an alternative to bank credit.
I Piani Individuali di Risparmio (PIR), introdotti dal Governo Italiano con la Legge di Bilancio 2017, sono una nuova forma di investimento – caratterizzata da benefici fiscali per il detentore – il cui principale obiettivo è quello di canalizzare i risparmi degli Italiani verso le attività produttive delle PMI italiane, al fine di promuovere lo sviluppo economico del Paese. Dopo una globale ed esaustiva presentazione dei Piani Individuali di Risparmio e della loro accoglienza in Italia, la tesi fornisce uno dei primi contributi alla pressoché inesistente letteratura sull’argomento, andando ad analizzare l’impatto dei PIR sul mercato borsistico italiano (Borsa Italiana) in termini di rendimenti azionari, volumi di scambio, bid-ask spread, e capitale raccolto dalle imprese italiane attraverso la quotazione e l’emissione di nuove azioni nel 2017. L’analisi dei CAR e dei BHAR rivela un forte impatto positivo dei PIR in termini di extra-rendimento per le azioni delle PMI – in particolare, per quelle quotate su AIM Italia o sull’MTA, ma non nel segmento STAR – a partire da gennaio 2017, ossia da quando la normativa è entrata in vigore, e che tale effetto è anticipato di circa un mese per le società STAR. Al fine di analizzare l’impatto su volumi di scambio e bid-ask spread, si ricorre a modelli Difference-in-Difference e t-test. Per quanto riguarda i volumi, si registrano un effetto positivo diretto dei PIR ed uno positivo indiretto (grazie ad un aumento della capitalizzazione legata, a sua volta, ai maggiori ritorni) sulle PMI; inoltre, i risultati evidenziano un effetto di “cannibalizzazione” per le società quotate a maggiore capitalizzazione. Riguardo i bid-ask spread, nel 2017 se ne registra una diminuzione sia per le PMI che per le aziende parte del FTSE MIB. Infine, lo studio rivela una forte accelerazione nella raccolta di capitale di rischio su AIM Italia da parte delle PMI nel 2017, evidenziando i primi segnali della capacità dei PIR nello stimolare le piccole e medie società italiane a quotarsi ed emettere nuove azioni come forma di finanziamento alternativa al credito bancario.
The impact of individual savings plans (PIR) on the Italian stock exchange
FALLOVO, FABIO
2016/2017
Abstract
The Individual Savings Plans (PIR) launched by the Italian Government via the 2017 Budget Law are a new form of investment – characterized by fiscal benefits for holders – whose main objective is to channel financial flows towards the productive activities of Italian SMEs in order to promote the economic development of the country. After an exhaustive and comprehensive presentation of the new Italian Individual Savings Plans and their reception in Italy, this dissertation gives one of the first quantitative contributions to the almost nonexistent academic literature on the topic, analyzing the impact of PIR on the Italian Stock Exchange (or Borsa Italiana) in terms of stock returns, trading volumes, bid-ask spreads, and equity capital raised by Italian companies through IPOs and capital increases in 2017. An analysis of CARs and BHARs reveals a strong positive PIR impact in terms of extra-returns for SMEs stocks – mainly on the ones listed on AIM Italia or on MTA market, but not on the STAR segment – starting from January 2017, while the effect is anticipated by one month for companies listed on the STAR segment. Difference-In-Differences models and t-tests are employed to analyze the impact on trading volumes and bid-ask spreads. For what concerns trading volumes, there are a positive direct PIR effect for SMEs and a positive indirect one, linked to increasing market capitalization (as returns increase); moreover, findings suggest PIR generated a “cannibalization” effect for stocks of larger Italian listed companies. As for bid-ask spreads, a decrease for both listed SMEs and FTSE MIB constituents in 2017 is found. Finally, the study highlights a sharp increase in the equity capital collected on AIM Italia by listed SMEs in 2017, identifying early signals of the capability of PIR in stimulating small and medium-sized enterprises to get listed and collect funds issuing new shares on the stock exchange as an alternative to bank credit.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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2017_12_Fallovo.pdf
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/136923