The European Floods Directive (Directive 2007/60 / EC) defines "the assessment of potential negative consequences associated with different flood scenarios" as "a valuable basis for defining priorities and additional technical, financial and political aspects to take decisions regarding flood risk management ". Despite this, to date, damage assessment tools are still inadequate for this purpose. In this context, the present work aims to investigate the indirect damage caused by flooding, and consequent interruption, of road transport infrastructures in case of flood, evaluating the response of the road network under ordinary scenario conditions and under flood scenarios. By using as a case study the Municipality of Lodi, first the appropriate tools to support the management of emergency phase are identified. In particular, through the development of a local transport model, it is demonstrated how it is possible (i) to optimize the evacuation phase of the city and (ii) to predict the impact of the network interruptions on the functionality of the critical emergency services, with a view to reducing direct and indirect damage in case of flood. Subsequently, extending the analysis to the case study of the Province of Lodi with a regional transport model, a methodology for the estimation of indirect damages is introduced, by assessing the effects and systemic damage that would be created in an alluvial scenario, following possible road interruptions. The tools developed aim to contribute to a modest advancement of the state of the art on the assessment of flood damage, which is able to support the political decisions to be taken both in the planning and management of the emergency and in the mitigation of the flood risk.
La direttiva europea sulle alluvioni (Direttiva 2007/60/CE) indica “la valutazione delle potenziali conseguenze negative associate a diversi scenari di alluvione” come “una base preziosa per la definizione delle priorità e di ulteriori aspetti tecnici, finanziari e politici utili a prendere decisioni riguardanti la gestione del rischio di alluvione”. Nonostante ciò, ad oggi gli strumenti di valutazione del danno sono ancora inadeguati a questo scopo. In questo contesto il presente lavoro mira ad investigare i danni indiretti generati dall’allagamento, ovvero dall’interruzione, delle infrastrutture di trasporto stradale in seguito ad un’alluvione, valutando la risposta della rete in condizioni di scenario ordinario e in condizioni di scenari alluvionali. Utilizzando come caso studio il Comune di Lodi, in un primo momento si individuano gli strumenti adatti per supportare la gestione dell’emergenza da rischio alluvione; nello specifico, attraverso lo sviluppo di un modello di trasporto locale si dimostra come sia possibile (i) ottimizzare la fase di evacuazione della città e (ii) prevedere le ripercussioni dell’interruzione della rete sulla funzionalità dei servizi critici per l’emergenza, nell’ottica di ridurre i danni diretti e indiretti in caso di evento. Successivamente, estendendo l’analisi al caso studio della Provincia di Lodi mediante l’uso di un modello di trasporto regionale, si introduce una metodologia di stima per i danni indiretti valutando gli effetti e il danno sistemico che si verrebbero a creare in uno scenario alluvionale in seguito a possibili interruzioni stradali. Gli strumenti sviluppati hanno come obiettivo quello di contribuire ad un modesto avanzamento dello stato dell’arte sulla valutazione dei danni alluvionali, in grado di poter supportare le decisioni politiche da intraprendere sia nella pianificazione e nella gestione dell’emergenza, sia nella mitigazione del rischio idraulico.
La modellazione della rete di trasporto stradale a supporto della gestione del rischio alluvionale
FRATTARI, MARCO
2018/2019
Abstract
The European Floods Directive (Directive 2007/60 / EC) defines "the assessment of potential negative consequences associated with different flood scenarios" as "a valuable basis for defining priorities and additional technical, financial and political aspects to take decisions regarding flood risk management ". Despite this, to date, damage assessment tools are still inadequate for this purpose. In this context, the present work aims to investigate the indirect damage caused by flooding, and consequent interruption, of road transport infrastructures in case of flood, evaluating the response of the road network under ordinary scenario conditions and under flood scenarios. By using as a case study the Municipality of Lodi, first the appropriate tools to support the management of emergency phase are identified. In particular, through the development of a local transport model, it is demonstrated how it is possible (i) to optimize the evacuation phase of the city and (ii) to predict the impact of the network interruptions on the functionality of the critical emergency services, with a view to reducing direct and indirect damage in case of flood. Subsequently, extending the analysis to the case study of the Province of Lodi with a regional transport model, a methodology for the estimation of indirect damages is introduced, by assessing the effects and systemic damage that would be created in an alluvial scenario, following possible road interruptions. The tools developed aim to contribute to a modest advancement of the state of the art on the assessment of flood damage, which is able to support the political decisions to be taken both in the planning and management of the emergency and in the mitigation of the flood risk.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/148414