Ensuring universal access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity supply is one of the most important priorities of the United Nations Agenda 2030 of Sustainable Development. Still, 1 billion of people worldwide - most of whom located in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa - have no access to electricity. Internationally, off-grid small-scale generation is recognized as one of the most appropriate and less expensive options for rural electrification. Due to important local socio-economic and technical constraints typical of rural areas, the current path of global electrification is experiencing recurring unsuccessful outcomes. CEFA Onlus - an Italian NGO specialized in integrated rural development - in the last 30 years has contributed to develop three Small Hydropower Plants (SHPP) in rural Tanzania. Such electrification projects have proven that it is possible to overcome some of the typical contextual challenges of installing electric power systems for public service provision in developing countries, contributing to trigger significant social and economic changes in the communities involved. Currently, CEFA is pursuing a new scale-up strategy by developing a 6.00 MW SHPP in Ninga village within the framework of a Non-Profit/For-Profit Partnership. The purpose of the thesis is to assess the financial viability of Ninga SHPP and to investigate CEFA's rural development model, capitalizing on the lessons learned and best practices in order to ensure sustainable outcomes for Ninga SHPP project and create the conditions for making the project attractive to potential investors. To assess the investment-readiness of Ninga SHPP, a financial model developed for CEFA by the Transaction Advisory Services Facility was used and adapted to allow the comparison of three different approaches to estimate the annual electricity consumption and its growth over a period of 25 years. The approach proposed required an extensive data collection and investigation of the social and physical environment carried out in several field surveys in the study area. The results have confirmed the financial viability of Ninga SHPP and has shown the importance of adopting a stochastic bottom-up approach to develop reliable estimates of electricity load profiles under a long-term perspective. The study also allowed to identify strategies to successfully foster electricity-driven socio-economic development in rural areas of developing countries through a community-based holistic approach.
Garantire accesso universale a forme di energia elettrica affidabili, economiche e sostenibili è una delle priorità dell'Agenda 2030 delle Nazioni Unite per lo sviluppo sostenibile. Tuttavia, ad oggi, ancora un miliardo di persone nel mondo - la maggior parte delle quali in zone rurali dell'Africa subsahariana - non ha accesso all'elettricità. A livello internazionale, la generazione distribuita su piccola scala è considerata tra le opzioni più appropriate e meno costose per l'elettrificazione rurale. A causa di importanti criticità tecniche e socio-economiche tipiche delle aree rurali, l'attuale percorso di elettrificazione globale sta ottenendo ricorrenti risultati insoddisfacenti. CEFA Onlus - una ONG italiana specializzata in sviluppo rurale integrato - negli ultimi 30 anni ha contribuito a realizzare tre mini centrali idroelettriche in aree rurali della Tanzania. Tali progetti hanno dimostrato che è possibile superare alcune delle sfide contestuali tipiche dell'installazione di impianti elettrici per la fornitura di servizi pubblici in paesi in via di sviluppo, innescando cambiamenti sociali ed economici significativi nelle comunità coinvolte. Attualmente, il CEFA sta perseguendo una nuova strategia di scale-up sviluppando una mini centrale idroelettrica da 6,00 MW nel villaggio di Ninga (Tanzania), da realizzare in partenariato con il settore privato. Lo scopo della tesi è di valutare la fattibilità finanziaria del progetto di Ninga e di indagare il modello di sviluppo rurale del CEFA, capitalizzandone l'esperienza per garantire risultati sostenibili al progetto Ninga e creare le condizioni per attrarre potenziali investitori. Per valutare l'attuabilità del progetto di Ninga, è stato utilizzato un modello finanziario sviluppato per CEFA dalla Transaction Advisory Services Facility e adattato per consentire il confronto di tre diversi approcci per stimare il consumo annuo di energia elettrica nell'arco di 25 anni. La metodologia adottata ha richiesto un ampio lavoro di raccolta dati e indagine sul contesto socio-economico, effettuato tramite diverse missioni sul campo nell'area di studio. I risultati hanno confermato la fattibilità finanziaria del progetto di Ninga e dimostrato l'importanza di adottare un approccio stocastico bottom-up per elaborare stime affidabili dei profili di carico in una prospettiva di lungo periodo. Lo studio ha anche permesso di identificare strategie per promuovere con successo lo sviluppo socio-economico di zone rurali in paesi in via di sviluppo per mezzo di un approccio olistico basato sulle comunità locali.
Technical and socio-economic sustainability of rural electrification in Tanzania : the case of Ninga small hydropower plant project
COLOMBELLI, FABRIZIO
2018/2019
Abstract
Ensuring universal access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity supply is one of the most important priorities of the United Nations Agenda 2030 of Sustainable Development. Still, 1 billion of people worldwide - most of whom located in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa - have no access to electricity. Internationally, off-grid small-scale generation is recognized as one of the most appropriate and less expensive options for rural electrification. Due to important local socio-economic and technical constraints typical of rural areas, the current path of global electrification is experiencing recurring unsuccessful outcomes. CEFA Onlus - an Italian NGO specialized in integrated rural development - in the last 30 years has contributed to develop three Small Hydropower Plants (SHPP) in rural Tanzania. Such electrification projects have proven that it is possible to overcome some of the typical contextual challenges of installing electric power systems for public service provision in developing countries, contributing to trigger significant social and economic changes in the communities involved. Currently, CEFA is pursuing a new scale-up strategy by developing a 6.00 MW SHPP in Ninga village within the framework of a Non-Profit/For-Profit Partnership. The purpose of the thesis is to assess the financial viability of Ninga SHPP and to investigate CEFA's rural development model, capitalizing on the lessons learned and best practices in order to ensure sustainable outcomes for Ninga SHPP project and create the conditions for making the project attractive to potential investors. To assess the investment-readiness of Ninga SHPP, a financial model developed for CEFA by the Transaction Advisory Services Facility was used and adapted to allow the comparison of three different approaches to estimate the annual electricity consumption and its growth over a period of 25 years. The approach proposed required an extensive data collection and investigation of the social and physical environment carried out in several field surveys in the study area. The results have confirmed the financial viability of Ninga SHPP and has shown the importance of adopting a stochastic bottom-up approach to develop reliable estimates of electricity load profiles under a long-term perspective. The study also allowed to identify strategies to successfully foster electricity-driven socio-economic development in rural areas of developing countries through a community-based holistic approach.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/148847