FLORIMAP (Smart FLOod RIsk MAnagement Policies) is a project recently funded by Fondazione CARIPLO of Italy. FLORIMAP aims at re-evaluating extreme floods distribution in hydrologically homogeneous regions of Northern Italy, updating the regional approaches originally designed by VAPI (Flood Evaluation) project, based upon a previous dataset covering approximatively the periodo between 1920 and 1970. For this purpose, in the FLORIMAP project we use flood data gathered during the three last decades. FLORIMAP will first cover open issues associated with the quantification of flood hazard and inundation risk, and then it will assess human exposure and vulnerability, and combine these issues with strategies of communication and risk management, because risk communication is an important activity that can influence flood risk management. Communication is the bridge between the technical and professional community, decision makers, elected officials, funding sources, and the public at large. Structural interventions, however carried out and however achievable, in fact leave a portion of uncovered risk, called residual risk, determined by the possibility that events of greater intensity than the project data may still occur, albeit with very modest probabilities or frequencies. Recent literature on risk communication and perception has highlighted that understanding the psychological perception of environmental risk is a crucial factor to foster community resilience, and to promote adaptive attitudes and behaviour. In that elaborate, in fulfilment of FLORIMAP project, we present a preliminary assessment of updated extreme values distribution in the case study area of North-Western Italy, encompassing three hydrologically homogeneous region according to VAPI method. We benchmark our results against those of VAPI project, to study the evolution of flood hazard under recent climate change. We then discuss assessment of flood hazard, and risk for a case study area, and demonstrate modified hazard under recent climate change. We then discuss implications for risk communication in the target areas, and provide suggestions for prosecution of the FLORIMAP project.
FLORIMAP (Smart FLOod RIsk MAnagement Policies) è un progetto recentemente finanziato dalla Fondazione CARIPLO d'Italia. Tale progetto mira a rivalutare la distribuzione di alluvioni estreme nelle regioni idrologicamente omogenee del Nord Italia, aggiornando gli approcci regionali originariamente progettati dal progetto VAPI (Flood Evaluation), sulla base di un precedente set di dati che copre ca. dal 1920 al 1970. A tal fine, nel progetto FLORIMAP verranno utilizzati i dati sulle alluvioni raccolti negli ultimi tre decenni. FLORIMAP coprirà innanzitutto le questioni aperte associate alla quantificazione del rischio di alluvione e del rischio di inondazione, quindi valuterà l'esposizione umana e la vulnerabilità e combinerà questi problemi con strategie di comunicazione e gestione del rischio, poiché la comunicazione del rischio è un'attività importante che influenza la gestione del rischio di alluvione. La comunicazione è il ponte tra la comunità tecnica e professionale, i decisori, i funzionari eletti, le fonti di finanziamento e il pubblico in generale. La letteratura recente sulla comunicazione e la percezione del rischio ha evidenziato che la comprensione della percezione psicologica del rischio ambientale è un fattore cruciale per favorire la resilienza della comunità e promuovere atteggiamenti e comportamenti adattativi. In tale elaborato verrà presentata una valutazione preliminare della distribuzione differenziata dei valori estremi nell'area del caso di studio dell'Italia nord-occidentale, che comprende tre regioni idrologicamente omogenee secondo il metodo VAPI. Confrontiamo i nostri risultati con quelli del progetto VAPI, per studiare l'evoluzione del rischio di alluvione durante i recenti cambiamenti climatici. Discutiamo quindi della valutazione del rischio di alluvione e del rischio per un'area di studio di un caso e dimostriamo il pericolo modificato in seguito al recente cambiamento climatico. Discutiamo quindi delle implicazioni per la comunicazione del rischio nelle aree target e forniamo suggerimenti per perseguire il progetto FLORIMAP.
Distribuzioni aggiornate dei valori estremi dei colmi di piena in Nord Italia. Il progetto Florimap
DASSI, GIORGIO
2019/2020
Abstract
FLORIMAP (Smart FLOod RIsk MAnagement Policies) is a project recently funded by Fondazione CARIPLO of Italy. FLORIMAP aims at re-evaluating extreme floods distribution in hydrologically homogeneous regions of Northern Italy, updating the regional approaches originally designed by VAPI (Flood Evaluation) project, based upon a previous dataset covering approximatively the periodo between 1920 and 1970. For this purpose, in the FLORIMAP project we use flood data gathered during the three last decades. FLORIMAP will first cover open issues associated with the quantification of flood hazard and inundation risk, and then it will assess human exposure and vulnerability, and combine these issues with strategies of communication and risk management, because risk communication is an important activity that can influence flood risk management. Communication is the bridge between the technical and professional community, decision makers, elected officials, funding sources, and the public at large. Structural interventions, however carried out and however achievable, in fact leave a portion of uncovered risk, called residual risk, determined by the possibility that events of greater intensity than the project data may still occur, albeit with very modest probabilities or frequencies. Recent literature on risk communication and perception has highlighted that understanding the psychological perception of environmental risk is a crucial factor to foster community resilience, and to promote adaptive attitudes and behaviour. In that elaborate, in fulfilment of FLORIMAP project, we present a preliminary assessment of updated extreme values distribution in the case study area of North-Western Italy, encompassing three hydrologically homogeneous region according to VAPI method. We benchmark our results against those of VAPI project, to study the evolution of flood hazard under recent climate change. We then discuss assessment of flood hazard, and risk for a case study area, and demonstrate modified hazard under recent climate change. We then discuss implications for risk communication in the target areas, and provide suggestions for prosecution of the FLORIMAP project.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/165462