Despite the results achieved during the international conferences, global CO2 emissions continue to increase. The transport sector, which is one of the most responsible emitters of greenhouse gases and pollutants, and the largest oil consumer, with particular reference to motor vehicle transport, receives the greatest attention. It is therefore necessary to implement decarbonization strategies in this sector, which include not only improving the efficiency of vehicles already in use and shifting to more efficient transport modes, but also introducing and deploying new technologies, such as hybrid cars, electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid cars (PHEV) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). There are several scenarios of penetration of new vehicle technologies available in the literature, and there are also numerous studies that attempt to assess the impact resulting from the potential realization of such scenarios. Among the main methodologies analyzed, stand out the WTW (Well-to-Wheel) and the LCA (Life-Cycle Assessment) approaches. However, it is clear that an approach capable of assessing a multidimensional impact is lacking, in particular from the energy, environmental, and economic points of view, without losing the technological detail that characterizes the new vehicles and the chain reactions related to the sectors connected to them. In this work, therefore, an alternative methodology is proposed, based on a Multi-layer model, generated from the supply and use input-output tables provided by Eurostat in both energy and economic versions. The model was applied to assess the impact of the introduction of new technologies in the Italian car fleet, according to the scenarios proposed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for 2060. This study showed that a change in car transport would certainly reduce environmental emissions during the life of the vehicle, but this would have an appreciable impact if coordinated with a change in the electricity generation technology mix, due to the strong penetration of electric motor vehicles. In addition, the sensitivity analysis showed that the introduction of the hydrogen technology would help Italy not only to reduce its environmental impact, but also, in case of production by electrolysis, to exploit the high variable renewable sources (VRE) potential of the country, thus contributing to the Italian stability and reducing the energy dependence on foreign countries.
Nonostante i risultati raggiunti nelle conferenze internazionali, le emissioni di CO2 a livello globale continuano ad aumentare. Una profonda attenzione viene rivolta al settore dei trasporti, tra i più responsabili emettitori di gas serra e inquinanti e il maggior consumatore di petrolio, con particolare riferimento al trasporto automobilistico. Risulta quindi necessario attuare strategie di decarbonizzazione del settore, le quali includono non solo il miglioramento dell’efficienza di veicoli già in uso e lo spostamento verso modalità di trasporto più efficienti, ma anche l’introduzione e la diffusione di nuove tecnologie, quali le auto ibride, le auto elettriche (BEV), le auto ibride plug-in (PHEV) e le auto a idrogeno (FCEV). Sono molteplici gli scenari di penetrazioni di nuove tecnologie di veicoli disponibili in letteratura, e altrettanto numerosi sono gli studi che tentano di valutare l’impatto conseguente alla potenziale realizzazione di tali scenari. Tra le principali metodologie analizzate, spiccano gli approcci WTW (Well-to-Wheel) e LCA (Life-Cycle Assessment). Tuttavia, si evidenzia l’assenza di un approccio in grado di valutare un impatto multidimensionale, in particolare dal punto di vista energetico, ambientale, ed economico, senza perdere il dettaglio tecnologico che caratterizza i nuovi veicoli e le reazioni di filiera legate ai settori ad essi connessi. In questo lavoro viene proposta pertanto una metodologia alternativa, basata su un modello Multi-Layer, generato a partire dalle tavole input-output di tipo supply and use fornite da Eurostat in versione sia energetica che economica. Il modello è stato applicato per valutare gli impatti dell’introduzione delle nuove tecnologie nel parco auto italiano, secondo gli scenari proposti dall’International Energy Agency (IEA) per il 2060. Da questo studio è risultato che un cambiamento del trasporto auto, ridurrebbe sicuramente le emissioni ambientali durante la vita del veicolo, ma ciò avrebbe un impatto apprezzabile se coordinato con un cambiamento di mix nel settore di generazione dell’elettricità, a causa della forte penetrazione dei veicoli a motorizzazione elettrica. Inoltre, l’analisi di sensitività ha mostrato che l’introduzione della tecnologia a idrogeno aiuterebbe l’Italia non solo a ridurre il proprio impatto ambientale, ma anche, in caso di produzione da elettrolisi, a sfruttare l’alto potenziale italiano di fonti rinnovabili variabili (VRE), contribuendo dunque al loro sfruttamento ed alla stabilità italiana in tema di elettricità e diminuendo la dipendenza energetica dall’estero.
Comprehensive impact assessment of road transport sector transition scenarios : application to Italy
Di LEO, GIULIA
2018/2019
Abstract
Despite the results achieved during the international conferences, global CO2 emissions continue to increase. The transport sector, which is one of the most responsible emitters of greenhouse gases and pollutants, and the largest oil consumer, with particular reference to motor vehicle transport, receives the greatest attention. It is therefore necessary to implement decarbonization strategies in this sector, which include not only improving the efficiency of vehicles already in use and shifting to more efficient transport modes, but also introducing and deploying new technologies, such as hybrid cars, electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid cars (PHEV) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). There are several scenarios of penetration of new vehicle technologies available in the literature, and there are also numerous studies that attempt to assess the impact resulting from the potential realization of such scenarios. Among the main methodologies analyzed, stand out the WTW (Well-to-Wheel) and the LCA (Life-Cycle Assessment) approaches. However, it is clear that an approach capable of assessing a multidimensional impact is lacking, in particular from the energy, environmental, and economic points of view, without losing the technological detail that characterizes the new vehicles and the chain reactions related to the sectors connected to them. In this work, therefore, an alternative methodology is proposed, based on a Multi-layer model, generated from the supply and use input-output tables provided by Eurostat in both energy and economic versions. The model was applied to assess the impact of the introduction of new technologies in the Italian car fleet, according to the scenarios proposed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for 2060. This study showed that a change in car transport would certainly reduce environmental emissions during the life of the vehicle, but this would have an appreciable impact if coordinated with a change in the electricity generation technology mix, due to the strong penetration of electric motor vehicles. In addition, the sensitivity analysis showed that the introduction of the hydrogen technology would help Italy not only to reduce its environmental impact, but also, in case of production by electrolysis, to exploit the high variable renewable sources (VRE) potential of the country, thus contributing to the Italian stability and reducing the energy dependence on foreign countries.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/165506