With the continuous increase in population due to prosperous living conditions and economic growth, energy demand experienced a dramatic increase in the last few years. Simultaneously, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasing, worsening the condition of global warming, and increasing meteorological catastrophic events around the world. In this framework, many countries agreed on the necessity of turning around their energy policies and prioritize the integration of renewable energy systems (RES) in their future energy plans since renewables are free of direct pollution and carbon emissions. Therefore, during the past decades, a special effort was made by several countries for the development of innovative energy systems, mainly based on renewable energy sources. In order to achieve this goal, many identified challenges inherently motivated by geospatial questions need to be addressed. The aim of this thesis is to analyze and outline the different approaches using the Geographic Information System (GIS) in renewable energy-related projects. A detailed review has been made on the previous approaches to extract distinct challenges from the previous efforts. In the same perspective, the use of GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) as a decision support system (DSS) has been critically reviewed, showing the most used methodologies for optimal RES placement. Moreover, due to the outstanding growth of the photovoltaic energy market and the considerable need for the implementation of a large-scale application of solar energy technologies in the urban context, understanding the rooftop PV potential is critical for utility planning, accommodating grid capacity, deploying financing schemes and formulating future adaptive energy policies. A detailed review has been made to highlights the significant use of the GIS tool to estimate the available rooftop area for PV deployment and potential energy generation of building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) technology. Usually, a hierarchy of potentials is calculated which gradually includes restrictions for the use of a specific renewable resource. To this end, a GIS-based hierarchical methodology based on similar attempts worldwide is proposed to effectively estimate the technical potential of BIPV systems to the whole city of Milan, Italy. The methodology procedures involve geographical division of the region; excluding protected areas and historical places; calculation of available roof area using the available city GIS data; reduction for shading, other uses, and orientation; and conversion to power and energy outputs. The most restrictive step when estimating this potential for large-scale territories is the estimation of the roof available area in existing buildings, for which no direct data exists. The proposed methodology allows to estimate the roof area available for solar application by using the opensource software QGIS 3.16 to analyze the available GIS data for the study area. It is based on easily accessible data such as land uses and building footprints. Available roof areas have been estimated for the study area with 4.225 km^2, and represent 14.5% of the total building area in the city. The mean solar irradiation characteristics were defined using ArcGIS Pro as well as the technical parameters of the photovoltaic systems. The calculated mean solar irradiation for the study area has been found to be 1511 (kWh/(m^2 year). All these factors allowed us to estimate the amount of electricity that could be potentially generated per year by solar panels. Following the proposed methodology and considering a conservative approach, with appropriate rooftops covered with commercial solar cells, the calculated potential annual energy production is 996 GWh with a nominal installed power of 777 (MW). The estimated potential would satisfy approximately 14% of all electricity demand in Milan at the annual range. Milan's current installed PV power is 34 MW corresponds to 2% of the distributed peak demand while the calculated potential can satisfy nearly up to 48% of distributed peak demand. Daily and monthly variation of the generation from the Rooftop PV Systems has been studied. Comparison of the obtained results with the 2019 load demand in Milan on both municipal and city level shows that large-scale deployment of Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Systems can provide a range of 5-30% of the daily demand, during different days. The comparison also showed that municipal 4 has the largest PV potential share from the demand with 20% on annual basis, while it can provide on daily basis a range of 5-45% of the daily demand. On the other hand, municipal 6 found to have the least PV potential share from the demand with only 7% on annual basis, while it can provide a range of 2-15% of the daily demand. The obtained results allowed a new understanding of roof area distribution and potential PV outputs which can guide energy decision-makers in Milan.
Con il continuo aumento della popolazione dovuto alle condizioni di vita prospere e alla crescita economica, la domanda di energia ha registrato un drammatico aumento negli ultimi anni. Allo stesso tempo, le emissioni di gas a effetto serra stanno aumentando così come il riscaldamento globale e gli eventi meteorologici catastrofici in tutto il mondo. In tale contesto, molti paesi hanno convenuto sulla necessità di aggiornare le loro politiche energetiche dando priorità all'integrazione dei sistemi di energia rinnovabile (RES) nei loro futuri piani energetici, poiché le energie rinnovabili sono libere dall'inquinamento diretto e dalle emissioni di carbonio. Di conseguenza, negli ultimi decenni, diversi paesi hanno compiuto uno sforzo importante per lo sviluppo di sistemi energetici innovativi, basati principalmente su fonti energetiche rinnovabili. Uno delgi scopi di questa tesi è quello di analizzare e delineare i diversi approcci nell'utilizzo di sistemi GIS (Geographic Information System) nell’ambito delle energie rinnovabili. È stata effettuata una revisione dettagliata della letteratura esistente ed è stato esaminato criticamente l'uso dell'analisi decisionale multicriteria basata su GIS (MCDA) come sistema di supporto alle decisioni (DSS), mostrando le metodologie più comunemente utilizzate per un posizionamento ottimale delle RES. Inoltre, è stata effettuata una revisione dettagliata dell’utilizzo dei sistemi GIS per la stima dell'area disponibile e della potenziale generazione di energia da generazione fotovoltaica integrata nell'edificio (BIPV). Avere a disposizione un'applicazione per lo studio e l’implementazione su larga scala della tecnologia fotovoltaica nel contesto urbano e comprendere il potenziale a disposizione è fondamentale per l’integrazione degli impianti fotovoltaici, la pianificazione delle reti, l'implementazione di schemi di finanziamento e la formulazione di future politiche energetiche adattive. A tal fine, un ulteriore scopo di questa tesi è la proposta di una metodologia gerarchica basata su GIS per stimare efficacemente il potenziale tecnico degli impianti BIPV su tutta la città di Milano, Italia. La metodologia proposta consente di stimare l'area del tetto disponibile per l'applicazione fotovoltaica utilizzando il software opensource QGIS e ArcGIS e i dati GIS disponibili per l'area di studio. La procedura prevede una suddivisione geografica della regione in analisi; l’esclusione delle aree protette e dei luoghi storici; il calcolo dell'area disponibile all’installazione di sistemi fotovoltaici utilizzando i dati GIS disponibili; la riduzione di tale area per ombreggiatura, altri usi e orientamento; la stima della potenza e dell’energia elettrica potenzialmente producibile. Il vincolo maggiore nella stima di questo potenziale in contesti urbani è il calcolo dell'area disponibile del tetto degli edifici esistenti, per la quale non esistono dati diretti. Le aree disponibili sono state stimate in ragione di 4.225 km^2 e rappresentano il 14,5% della superficie totale degli edifici. Le caratteristiche medie di irradiazione solare sono state definite utilizzando il software ArcGIS e i parametri tecnici degli impianti fotovoltaici. L'irradiazione annua solare media identificata per l'area di studio è 1511 kWh/m^2. Tutti i suddetti dati hanno permesso di stimare la quantità di energia elettrica che potrebbe essere potenzialmente generata dagli impianti fotovoltaici. Seguendo la metodologia proposta e considerando un approccio conservativo è stata stimata una produzione potenziale annua di energia pari a 996 GWh con una potenza nominale installata di 777 MW. Il potenziale stimato potrebbe soddisfare circa il 14% di tutta la domanda di energia elettrica a Milano. L'attuale potenza fotovoltaica installata, 34 MW, corrisponde al 2% del picco di domanda mentre il potenziale calcolato potrebbe soddisfare quasi il 48% di tale picco. È stata anche analizzata la variazione giornaliera e mensile della generazione. Il confronto dei risultati ottenuti con la curva di carico 2019 di Milano e dei suoi 9 municipi mostra che l'implementazione su larga scala di impianti fotovoltaici solari può fornire dal 5% al 30% della domanda giornaliera. Il confronto ha anche mostrato che il municipio 4 (Porta Vittoria, Porta Romana, Forlanini, Monluè, Rogoredo) ha la più grande quota potenziale di produzione fotovoltaica rispetto alla domanda, il 20% su base annua, variando su base giornaliera dal 5% al 45%. D'altra parte, il municipio 6 (Barona, Lorenteggio) ha la quota potenziale di produzione minore con solo il 7% su base annua, con variazioni dal 2% al 15% della domanda giornaliera. I risultati ottenuti hanno permesso una nuova comprensione della distribuzione dell'area disponibile e della potenziale produzione fotovoltaica nella città di Milano.
GIS for renewable energy systems : a BIPV case study from Milan
ABDELRAZEK, AHMED WAGIH ABDELKADER
2020/2021
Abstract
With the continuous increase in population due to prosperous living conditions and economic growth, energy demand experienced a dramatic increase in the last few years. Simultaneously, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasing, worsening the condition of global warming, and increasing meteorological catastrophic events around the world. In this framework, many countries agreed on the necessity of turning around their energy policies and prioritize the integration of renewable energy systems (RES) in their future energy plans since renewables are free of direct pollution and carbon emissions. Therefore, during the past decades, a special effort was made by several countries for the development of innovative energy systems, mainly based on renewable energy sources. In order to achieve this goal, many identified challenges inherently motivated by geospatial questions need to be addressed. The aim of this thesis is to analyze and outline the different approaches using the Geographic Information System (GIS) in renewable energy-related projects. A detailed review has been made on the previous approaches to extract distinct challenges from the previous efforts. In the same perspective, the use of GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) as a decision support system (DSS) has been critically reviewed, showing the most used methodologies for optimal RES placement. Moreover, due to the outstanding growth of the photovoltaic energy market and the considerable need for the implementation of a large-scale application of solar energy technologies in the urban context, understanding the rooftop PV potential is critical for utility planning, accommodating grid capacity, deploying financing schemes and formulating future adaptive energy policies. A detailed review has been made to highlights the significant use of the GIS tool to estimate the available rooftop area for PV deployment and potential energy generation of building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) technology. Usually, a hierarchy of potentials is calculated which gradually includes restrictions for the use of a specific renewable resource. To this end, a GIS-based hierarchical methodology based on similar attempts worldwide is proposed to effectively estimate the technical potential of BIPV systems to the whole city of Milan, Italy. The methodology procedures involve geographical division of the region; excluding protected areas and historical places; calculation of available roof area using the available city GIS data; reduction for shading, other uses, and orientation; and conversion to power and energy outputs. The most restrictive step when estimating this potential for large-scale territories is the estimation of the roof available area in existing buildings, for which no direct data exists. The proposed methodology allows to estimate the roof area available for solar application by using the opensource software QGIS 3.16 to analyze the available GIS data for the study area. It is based on easily accessible data such as land uses and building footprints. Available roof areas have been estimated for the study area with 4.225 km^2, and represent 14.5% of the total building area in the city. The mean solar irradiation characteristics were defined using ArcGIS Pro as well as the technical parameters of the photovoltaic systems. The calculated mean solar irradiation for the study area has been found to be 1511 (kWh/(m^2 year). All these factors allowed us to estimate the amount of electricity that could be potentially generated per year by solar panels. Following the proposed methodology and considering a conservative approach, with appropriate rooftops covered with commercial solar cells, the calculated potential annual energy production is 996 GWh with a nominal installed power of 777 (MW). The estimated potential would satisfy approximately 14% of all electricity demand in Milan at the annual range. Milan's current installed PV power is 34 MW corresponds to 2% of the distributed peak demand while the calculated potential can satisfy nearly up to 48% of distributed peak demand. Daily and monthly variation of the generation from the Rooftop PV Systems has been studied. Comparison of the obtained results with the 2019 load demand in Milan on both municipal and city level shows that large-scale deployment of Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Systems can provide a range of 5-30% of the daily demand, during different days. The comparison also showed that municipal 4 has the largest PV potential share from the demand with 20% on annual basis, while it can provide on daily basis a range of 5-45% of the daily demand. On the other hand, municipal 6 found to have the least PV potential share from the demand with only 7% on annual basis, while it can provide a range of 2-15% of the daily demand. The obtained results allowed a new understanding of roof area distribution and potential PV outputs which can guide energy decision-makers in Milan.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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2021-04 Ahmed Abdelrazek.pdf
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/175826