The aim of this thesis is the application of a hydrological model to ameliorate the flood forecasting system of Aburrá valley's metropolitan area in Colombia. Currently, the warning system is based on the observation and is subject to exceeding the threshold water levels of the Medellín river, the alert is given only some hours before an event. The application of a hydrological model coupled with a meteorological one, would mean an important advance in alerting the responsible bodies and consequently allowing the securing of people and goods with greater efficacy. The hydrological model applied is the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially-distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation - Water Balance (FEST-WB), largely employed for the study of the hydrological water balance and flood forecasting of alpine basins. The objective is to evaluate whether this model is also applicable to basins with climatic and morphological features which differ from the usual field of application. The input employed is composed by meteorological and hydrological data measured by the Sistema de Alerta Temprana de Medellín y el Valle de Aburrá (SIATA). Subsequently, in order to define the flood forecasting capacity of the model, the data from the Global Forecast System (GFS, NOAA/NCEP, USA) models are used. Although this work is a preliminary study, the hydrological model proves to be adaptable to this kind of basin, and, therefore, employable for the flood forecasting and alert system in the examined area which is often prone to hydraulic risks.
La presente tesi si propone di applicare un modello idrologico per migliorare il sistema di allertamento delle piene nell'area metropolitana della valle di Aburrá in Colombia. Attualmente, l'allerta viene data solo poche ore prima di un evento. Il sistema si basa su delle osservazioni, viene monitorato il livello fluviale del fiume Medellín e in caso di superamento di una soglia viene dato l'allarme. L'applicazione di un modello idrologico, accoppiato ad uno meteorologico, permetterebbe di allertare gli enti preposti con sufficiente anticipo, consentendo la messa in sicurezza della popolazione e dei beni con maggiore efficacia. Il modello idrologico applicato è il Flash-flood Event-based Spatially- distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation - Water Balance (FEST-WB), largamente impiegato nei bacini alpini per lo studio del bilancio idrologico e per la previsione delle piene. Si vuole valutare se tale modello è applicabile anche in bacini con caratteristiche climatiche e morfologiche differenti dal consueto campo di applicazione. Gli input utilizzati sono dati meteorologici ed idrologici misurati sul campo dal Sistema de Alerta Temprana de Medellín y el Valle de Aburrá (SIATA). Successivamente, per definire la capacità di predizione delle piene, vengono impiegati i dati provenienti dal modello meteorologico Global Forecast System (GFS, NOAA/NCEP, USA). Nonostante questo lavoro rappresenti un'analisi preliminare, il modello idrologico risulta adattabile a questo tipo di bacino e quindi utilizzabile per l'allertamento e la previsione delle piene nell'area in esame che spesso è soggetta a rischi idraulici.
Hydrological modelling of flood forecasting of the Medellin river in Colombia
Terbisi, Sofia
2020/2021
Abstract
The aim of this thesis is the application of a hydrological model to ameliorate the flood forecasting system of Aburrá valley's metropolitan area in Colombia. Currently, the warning system is based on the observation and is subject to exceeding the threshold water levels of the Medellín river, the alert is given only some hours before an event. The application of a hydrological model coupled with a meteorological one, would mean an important advance in alerting the responsible bodies and consequently allowing the securing of people and goods with greater efficacy. The hydrological model applied is the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially-distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation - Water Balance (FEST-WB), largely employed for the study of the hydrological water balance and flood forecasting of alpine basins. The objective is to evaluate whether this model is also applicable to basins with climatic and morphological features which differ from the usual field of application. The input employed is composed by meteorological and hydrological data measured by the Sistema de Alerta Temprana de Medellín y el Valle de Aburrá (SIATA). Subsequently, in order to define the flood forecasting capacity of the model, the data from the Global Forecast System (GFS, NOAA/NCEP, USA) models are used. Although this work is a preliminary study, the hydrological model proves to be adaptable to this kind of basin, and, therefore, employable for the flood forecasting and alert system in the examined area which is often prone to hydraulic risks.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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Descrizione: Hydrological modelling of flood forecasting of the Medellín river in Colombia
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/177286