The demand for building conditioning systems is constantly growing, not only due to a general increase in temperatures caused by climate change, but also because more and more people ask for an elevated state of thermohygrometric comfort. In Europe, being limited to short periods, such a demand does not weigh heavily on the total annual national electricity consumption, but it has a substantial impact in terms of peak electricity, which in turn could lead to possible problems on the Italian electricity system. Following an estimate of the annual Italian demand for cooling systems during 2013 and 2018, this work aims to create a profiling model of hourly electricity consumptions linked to conditioning systems with a municipal spatial detail. This model is based on a linear regression that associates the electricity demand for cooling systems to a climatic variable. The climatic variables used by the model are based on parameters measured at the municipal level, such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and on an estimate of the internal temperature of a group of buildings; whereas, the demand for conditioning systems underlying the model is isolated from the total of the electricity consumption profiles recorded at the level of the Italian electricity market area. The model is used to create a cooling system consumption forecast for 2030 consistent with the objectives of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC). Furthermore, the impact that conditioning systems could have on the national energy system will be assessed by making use of a pre-existing, publicly accessible model. In addition to the evaluation of the weight that cooling systems may have on the total electricity consumption, the demand peaks and the electricity production mix will be analysed. Then, a possible correlation between the specific moments of electricity production from photovoltaic and the conditioning systems demand will be investigated. Finally, in light of this scenario, the emissions attributable to cooling systems will be assessed.
La domanda di raffrescamento degli edifici è in continua crescita, sia per un generale aumento delle temperature legato ai cambiamenti climatici, sia perché sempre più persone richiedono un comfort termoigrometrico maggiore. In Europa, essendo concentrata in periodi brevi, la domanda di raffrescamento non grava molto sul totale dei consumi elettrici nazionali annui, ma ha un grosso impatto in termini di energia elettrica di picco. Questo potrebbe condurre a possibili problemi sul sistema elettrico italiano. Dopo avere fatto una stima della domanda annuale italiana di raffrescamento degli anni 2013 e 2018, questo lavoro si pone l’intento di realizzare un modello di profilazione oraria dei consumi elettrici dovuti al raffrescamento con un dettaglio spaziale a livello comunale. Tale modello è basato su una regressione lineare che associa ad una variabile climatica la domanda elettrica di raffrescamento. Le variabili climatiche utilizzate dal modello sono basate su dei parametri misurati a livello comunale come la temperatura ambiente, l’umidità relativa, la radiazione solare e su una stima della temperatura interna di un aggregato di edifici. La domanda di raffrescamento alla base del modello invece, viene isolata dal totale dei profili dei consumi elettrici rilevati a livello di zona di mercato elettrico italiana. Il modello è utilizzato per realizzare uno scenario sui consumi di raffrescamento relativo al 2030 coerente con gli obiettivi del Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima (PNIEC). Inoltre, con l’ausilio di un modello preesistente, pubblicamente accessibile, viene valutato l’impatto che il raffrescamento potrebbe avere sul sistema energetico nazionale. In particolare, vengono analizzati i picchi di richiesta di raffrescamento e il mix di produzione elettrica, oltre alla valutazione del peso che il raffrescamento potrà avere sul totale dei consumi elettrici. Viene poi valutata una possibile corrispondenza tra i momenti di produzione elettrica da fotovoltaico e la domanda di raffrescamento. Infine, nell’ottica di questo scenario vengono analizzate le emissioni attribuibili al raffrescamento.
A high temporal and spatial resolution model to assess the impact of space cooling on the future national energy system
Mallone, Danilo;LIETTI, RICCARDO
2020/2021
Abstract
The demand for building conditioning systems is constantly growing, not only due to a general increase in temperatures caused by climate change, but also because more and more people ask for an elevated state of thermohygrometric comfort. In Europe, being limited to short periods, such a demand does not weigh heavily on the total annual national electricity consumption, but it has a substantial impact in terms of peak electricity, which in turn could lead to possible problems on the Italian electricity system. Following an estimate of the annual Italian demand for cooling systems during 2013 and 2018, this work aims to create a profiling model of hourly electricity consumptions linked to conditioning systems with a municipal spatial detail. This model is based on a linear regression that associates the electricity demand for cooling systems to a climatic variable. The climatic variables used by the model are based on parameters measured at the municipal level, such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and on an estimate of the internal temperature of a group of buildings; whereas, the demand for conditioning systems underlying the model is isolated from the total of the electricity consumption profiles recorded at the level of the Italian electricity market area. The model is used to create a cooling system consumption forecast for 2030 consistent with the objectives of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC). Furthermore, the impact that conditioning systems could have on the national energy system will be assessed by making use of a pre-existing, publicly accessible model. In addition to the evaluation of the weight that cooling systems may have on the total electricity consumption, the demand peaks and the electricity production mix will be analysed. Then, a possible correlation between the specific moments of electricity production from photovoltaic and the conditioning systems demand will be investigated. Finally, in light of this scenario, the emissions attributable to cooling systems will be assessed.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Tesi_Mallone_Lietti.pdf
accessibile in internet solo dagli utenti autorizzati
Dimensione
18.34 MB
Formato
Adobe PDF
|
18.34 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizza/Apri |
I documenti in POLITesi sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
https://hdl.handle.net/10589/177716