On 31 January 2020 Great Britain effectively left the European Union. This initiated a transition period which ended on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and the EU negotiated their future relations. During the transition period, the UK remained subject to EU law and remained part of the EU customs union and single market, but no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions. With the end of the transition period, relations between the UK and the EU have begun to be regulated by the agreement signed on 24 December 2020, the Brexit withdrawal agreement, which provides for heavy movement of people, as well as customs declarations for goods, while it does not regulate important aspects of financial services. The effect has been of cutting the companies of the City of London out of the common market. It is the aim of this work to analyse the possible effect in the short/long term of Brexit on the market/business. After the description of all the relevant information about the topic and a review of the evolution of the studies on these subjects, an application of the most appropriate and actual qualitative models has been carried out. Lastly, a new methodology of reasoning for a quantitative analysis has been set and then applied to identify the correct cause-effect relations, since the problem, as it will be described, has never been studied considering the same (or analogue) plurality of events. Indeed, it must be noted here that a simple evaluation on latest economic performances of the United Kingdom is not reliable: they could be both being affected by the exit from the EU and/or by the Covid pandemic crisis. Thus, the model proposed here does not study the performances for itself, but they are studied in correlation with other important and similar economies, thus, to understand if there are misalignment. Since all the other comparable countries have been affected by the economic crisis induced by the pandemic, but not by the exit of an economical agreement, only a structured analysis of the deviations could make understandable the isolated impact of Brexit on the UK economy.
Il 31 gennaio 2020 la Gran Bretagna ha effettivamente lasciato l'Unione Europea. Ciò ha avviato un periodo di transizione che si è concluso il 31 dicembre 2020, durante il quale il Regno Unito e l'UE hanno negoziato le loro relazioni future. Durante il periodo di transizione, il Regno Unito è rimasto soggetto al diritto dell'UE e ha continuato a far parte dell'unione doganale e del mercato unico dell'UE, ma non è più parte degli organi o delle istituzioni politiche dell'UE. Con la fine del periodo di transizione, i rapporti tra Regno Unito e UE hanno iniziato a essere regolati dall'accordo firmato il 24 dicembre 2020, l'accordo di recesso Brexit che prevede forti movimenti di persone, nonché dichiarazioni doganali per le merci, mentre non disciplina aspetti importanti dei servizi finanziari. L'effetto è stato quello di tagliare fuori dal mercato comune le aziende della città di Londra. Scopo di questo lavoro è analizzare il possibile effetto a breve/lungo termine della Brexit sul mercato/business. Dopo la descrizione di tutte le informazioni rilevanti sull'argomento e una revisione dell'evoluzione degli studi su queste materie, è stati applicati i modelli qualitativi più appropriati e attuali. Infine, è stata impostata e poi applicata una nuova metodologia di ragionamento per una analisi quantitativa in grado di individuare le corrette relazioni causa-effetto, poiché il problema, come verrà descritto, non è mai stato studiato tenendo conto della stessa (o analoga) pluralità di eventi. In effetti, va qui notato che una semplice valutazione sulle ultime performance economiche del Regno Unito non è affidabile: potrebbero essere entrambe colpite dall'uscita dall'UE e/o dalla crisi pandemica di Covid. Quindi il modello qui proposto non studia le prestazioni di per sé, ma le studia in correlazione con altre economie simili, così da capire se ci sono disallineamenti. Poiché tutti gli altri paesi comparabili sono stati colpiti dalla crisi economica indotta dalla pandemia, ma non dall'uscita di un accordo economico, solo un'analisi strutturata degli scostamenti può rendere comprensibile l'impatto isolato della Brexit sull'economia britannica.
Internationalisation of services : economic impact of Brexit on the UK trade in services
Caldarini, Andrea Nicolo'
2020/2021
Abstract
On 31 January 2020 Great Britain effectively left the European Union. This initiated a transition period which ended on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and the EU negotiated their future relations. During the transition period, the UK remained subject to EU law and remained part of the EU customs union and single market, but no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions. With the end of the transition period, relations between the UK and the EU have begun to be regulated by the agreement signed on 24 December 2020, the Brexit withdrawal agreement, which provides for heavy movement of people, as well as customs declarations for goods, while it does not regulate important aspects of financial services. The effect has been of cutting the companies of the City of London out of the common market. It is the aim of this work to analyse the possible effect in the short/long term of Brexit on the market/business. After the description of all the relevant information about the topic and a review of the evolution of the studies on these subjects, an application of the most appropriate and actual qualitative models has been carried out. Lastly, a new methodology of reasoning for a quantitative analysis has been set and then applied to identify the correct cause-effect relations, since the problem, as it will be described, has never been studied considering the same (or analogue) plurality of events. Indeed, it must be noted here that a simple evaluation on latest economic performances of the United Kingdom is not reliable: they could be both being affected by the exit from the EU and/or by the Covid pandemic crisis. Thus, the model proposed here does not study the performances for itself, but they are studied in correlation with other important and similar economies, thus, to understand if there are misalignment. Since all the other comparable countries have been affected by the economic crisis induced by the pandemic, but not by the exit of an economical agreement, only a structured analysis of the deviations could make understandable the isolated impact of Brexit on the UK economy.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/178081