The thesis is aimed at understanding the present status of the automotive industry, as well as the future prospects. Multiple perspectives will be considered: economic, strategical, financial, environmental and even social, always trying to establish a clear connection among them, and disclosing both theoretical reasonings and empirical insights of present and past facts. Three main sections will be presented: • ACES trends (Autonomous vehicles, Connectivity, Electrification and Shared mobility): it considers the main macro-tendencies currently featuring the industry, acknowledging how they will drive the future strategies and developments in the industry itself. For each ACES trend, will be highlighted advantages and pitfalls, forecasts concerning future expectations, without forgetting to enlist the factors that enable or hinder the diffusion itself, and their relative interconnections. • EV recharging infrastructure: each EV needs to recharge flat batteries and a proper efficient infrastructure is needed. A classification of main chargers’ characteristics will be provided, underlying the main industry developments to reinforce the strengths and overcome the barriers against a consistent roll-out. Then, it will be discussed the pivotal role that national governments play in ruling and subsidizing the correct deployment of public and private chargers. • Batteries: after a broad description of battery properties, performances, current mainstream technologies and future prospects, the whole battery supply chain will be described emphasizing opportunities and threats and examining how each player is behaving in this transitioning and expanding phase. Objectives and trends affecting the industry are described, alongside with the provision of future quantitative prospects. The examination emphasizes the pivotal importance of OEMs, consumers and governments in pursuing a balanced and step-by-step growth in this period of great uncertainty and disruptive change for the automotive industry, where technologies, in their different declinations, are striving to overspread enhancing their profit pool. At the end of the document, the reader will have become acquainted with the whole state-of-art concerning the road mobility sector and able to understand how the various actors involved will need to take ambitious decisions not only to be successful and profitable but even to remain on the market.
Tale documento è finalizzato alla comprensione dello stato attuale e dei possibili risvolti futuri riguardanti l’industria automobilistica. Diverse prospettive verranno considerate: economico-finanziaria, strategica, ambientale e sociale, definendo una evidente connessione tra esse tutte. Teoria e pratica verranno “complementate” al fine di ottenere una visione olistica. Tre principali sezioni verranno presentate: • Trend ACES (Guida autonoma, Connettività, Elettrificazione, Guida condivisa): verranno descritti i macro-trend attualmente caratterizzanti il settore (esplicitando vantaggi e svantaggi, aspettative future, fattori che agevolano o rallentano i trend e loro inter-connessioni), in modo tale da delineare i possibili futuri sviluppi dello stesso. • Infrastruttura di ricarica per veicoli elettrici: ogni veicolo elettrico necessita di essere ricaricato e perciò risulta necessario soffermarsi sull’infrastruttura (pubblica e privata) di ricarica, esplicitando le caratteristiche e proprietà principali, i trend di potenziamento (in numero e diffusione) e le potenziali alternative. Un’ampia parentesi sarà aperta anche sui legislatori e sul loro ruolo in tale sviluppo. • Batterie: dal momento che una significativa porzione del costo totale di un veicolo elettrico è responsabilità di tale componente, appare necessario analizzare i vari trend ad esso relazionati (costi, proprietà, tecnologie, performance). Si proverà a fornire una visione d’insieme sulle prospettive future lungo la catena del valore, evidenziando le varie strategie introdotte dai diversi attori per affrontare il periodo di grandi mutazioni ed opportunità. Il testo enfatizzerà il ruolo di primo piano ricoperto da case automobilistiche, “newcomers”, legislatori e clienti in un momento di grande cambiamento ed incertezza, dove novità ed obsolescenza si mischiano. Alla fine del documento il lettore avrà familiarizzato con gli argomenti trattati e facilmente comprenderà quanto i vari attori dovranno spingersi oltre i propri limiti, non solo per ottenere profitti ma persino per sopravvivere nel mercato.
The future of road mobility and automotive : sustainability, reliability and profitability in the different realms
BULLA, MARCO
2020/2021
Abstract
The thesis is aimed at understanding the present status of the automotive industry, as well as the future prospects. Multiple perspectives will be considered: economic, strategical, financial, environmental and even social, always trying to establish a clear connection among them, and disclosing both theoretical reasonings and empirical insights of present and past facts. Three main sections will be presented: • ACES trends (Autonomous vehicles, Connectivity, Electrification and Shared mobility): it considers the main macro-tendencies currently featuring the industry, acknowledging how they will drive the future strategies and developments in the industry itself. For each ACES trend, will be highlighted advantages and pitfalls, forecasts concerning future expectations, without forgetting to enlist the factors that enable or hinder the diffusion itself, and their relative interconnections. • EV recharging infrastructure: each EV needs to recharge flat batteries and a proper efficient infrastructure is needed. A classification of main chargers’ characteristics will be provided, underlying the main industry developments to reinforce the strengths and overcome the barriers against a consistent roll-out. Then, it will be discussed the pivotal role that national governments play in ruling and subsidizing the correct deployment of public and private chargers. • Batteries: after a broad description of battery properties, performances, current mainstream technologies and future prospects, the whole battery supply chain will be described emphasizing opportunities and threats and examining how each player is behaving in this transitioning and expanding phase. Objectives and trends affecting the industry are described, alongside with the provision of future quantitative prospects. The examination emphasizes the pivotal importance of OEMs, consumers and governments in pursuing a balanced and step-by-step growth in this period of great uncertainty and disruptive change for the automotive industry, where technologies, in their different declinations, are striving to overspread enhancing their profit pool. At the end of the document, the reader will have become acquainted with the whole state-of-art concerning the road mobility sector and able to understand how the various actors involved will need to take ambitious decisions not only to be successful and profitable but even to remain on the market.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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2021_12_Bulla.pdf
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/183960