The Floods Directive 2007/06/EC requires Member States to draw up flood hazard and risk maps and prepare flood risk management plans, in order to reduce the potential negative consequences for human health and life, the environment, the cultural heritage and economic activities; hence the need of tools for the quantitative/monetary estimation of flood damage arises and it is therefore necessary to prepare adequate models for the assessment of these consequences. In current risk assessments, however, flood damage to agricultural sector is neglected, or estimated with much simplification, both due to the lack of useful data for the generation of more specific models, and because it is considered of lesser importance than the damage to other sectors exposed (e.g. residential, industrial, infrastructure). Faced with this lack, this thesis has set itself the objective to derive a model for the estimation of flood damage to the agricultural sector in the Po River District, with particular regard to losses to horticultural and tuber crops, using as primary source the AGRICE-c model (AGRIculture Damage Estimation for crops) already derived cereal crops, having the goal to expand the application of the model to other crops. In fact, the analysis of historical events shows a completely non-negligible weight of the damage to the agricultural sector, underlining the need for their better evaluation, in particular for projects that include the maintenance of floodplain areas or the construction of the retention basins. AGRIDE-c’s main strength is the integration between the assessment of physical damage and the assessment of economic damage, which cause consequences on farmers’ income. This allows AGRIDE-c to be used for the estimation of flood damage in different geographical and economic contexts. First of all, an analysis was carried out highlighting the main types of horticultural and tubers in the Po River district (the area under investigation), with specific reference to the areas at risk of flooding with a return period of 500 years. For the prevalent crops (i.e. tomato and sugar beet) the new model has been derived through an “expert-based” approach, taking into account all the inputs and considerations derived from the study of the literature and with the support of experts on the subject. In the end, the created model has been implemented as an example in the area at significant risk corresponding to the Po River.
La Direttiva Alluvioni (Direttiva 2007/60/CE) prevede che gli Stati Membri elaborino mappe della pericolosità e del rischio alluvioni e predispongano piani di gestione del rischio, al fine di ridurre le potenziali conseguenze negative derivanti dagli eventi alluvionali per la salute umana, l’ambiente, il patrimonio culturale e le attività economiche; risulta dunque necessario predisporre adeguati modelli per la valutazione quantitativa di tali conseguenze. Nelle attuali valutazioni di rischio, i danni alluvionali al settore agricolo vengono però generalmente trascurati, o stimati con approcci molto semplificati, sia per la mancanza di dati utili alla generazione di modelli più specifici, sia perché considerati di minore importanza rispetto agli impatti su altri settori esposti (es. residenziale, industriale, infrastrutture). A fronte di tale carenza, il presente lavoro di tesi si è posto l’obiettivo di sviluppare un modello per la valutazione del danno alluvionale al settore agricolo nel distretto idrografico del fiume Po, con particolare riguardo ai danni alle orticole e ai tuberi, utilizzando come fonte primaria il modello AGRIDE-c (AGRIculture Damage Estimation for crops) già derivato per le principali colture cerealicole e foraggere, con lo scopo di ampliare l’applicazione del modello stesso ad altre colture. Infatti, l’analisi degli eventi storici mostra un peso non trascurabile dei danni al settore agricolo, sottolineando la necessità di una loro miglior valutazione, in particolare per la valutazione di progetti che includono il ripristino di aree golenali/piane alluvionali o la realizzazione dei bacini di laminazione. AGRIDE-c ha come principale punto di forza quello di rappresentare l’integrazione tra la valutazione del danno fisico e la valutazione del danno economico, che causano conseguenze sul reddito degli agricoltori. Questo consente ad AGRIDE-c di essere utilizzato per la stima del danno alluvionale in diversi contesti geografici ed economici. Per prima cosa, è stata eseguita un’analisi che ha messo in luce quali fossero i tipi di orticole e tuberi prevalenti nel distretto del fiume Po (bacino oggetto di studio), andando a caratterizzare l’esposizione del territorio in esame, in particolare, focalizzandosi sulle aree potenzialmente a rischio di alluvione con tempo di ritorno di 500 anni. Per le due colture prevalenti nell’area (pomodoro e barbabietola da zucchero) è stato derivato un nuovo modello di danno attraverso un approccio “expert-based”, ovvero tenendo conto di tutti gli input e le considerazioni desunte dallo studio della letteratura e con il supporto di esperti in materia. Infine, il modello realizzato è stato implementato a scopo esemplificativo nell’area a potenziale rischio significativo corrispondente al fiume Po.
Sviluppo del modello di danno alluvionale AGRIDE-c per le colture orticole nell'ambito del distretto idrografico del fiume Po
CALDANO, VITTORIO
2021/2022
Abstract
The Floods Directive 2007/06/EC requires Member States to draw up flood hazard and risk maps and prepare flood risk management plans, in order to reduce the potential negative consequences for human health and life, the environment, the cultural heritage and economic activities; hence the need of tools for the quantitative/monetary estimation of flood damage arises and it is therefore necessary to prepare adequate models for the assessment of these consequences. In current risk assessments, however, flood damage to agricultural sector is neglected, or estimated with much simplification, both due to the lack of useful data for the generation of more specific models, and because it is considered of lesser importance than the damage to other sectors exposed (e.g. residential, industrial, infrastructure). Faced with this lack, this thesis has set itself the objective to derive a model for the estimation of flood damage to the agricultural sector in the Po River District, with particular regard to losses to horticultural and tuber crops, using as primary source the AGRICE-c model (AGRIculture Damage Estimation for crops) already derived cereal crops, having the goal to expand the application of the model to other crops. In fact, the analysis of historical events shows a completely non-negligible weight of the damage to the agricultural sector, underlining the need for their better evaluation, in particular for projects that include the maintenance of floodplain areas or the construction of the retention basins. AGRIDE-c’s main strength is the integration between the assessment of physical damage and the assessment of economic damage, which cause consequences on farmers’ income. This allows AGRIDE-c to be used for the estimation of flood damage in different geographical and economic contexts. First of all, an analysis was carried out highlighting the main types of horticultural and tubers in the Po River district (the area under investigation), with specific reference to the areas at risk of flooding with a return period of 500 years. For the prevalent crops (i.e. tomato and sugar beet) the new model has been derived through an “expert-based” approach, taking into account all the inputs and considerations derived from the study of the literature and with the support of experts on the subject. In the end, the created model has been implemented as an example in the area at significant risk corresponding to the Po River.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/186137