Climate change mitigation represents one of today’s biggest challenges and involves the reduction of heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere to prevent the planet from warming. According to the European Commission, by 2020 the CO2 concentration into the atmosphere had increased of about 48% above its preindustrial level. The principal cause related to the growth of emissions is linked to human activities, such as burning fossil fuels for electricity generation, heating and transport. Since people are the primary driver, their willingness to take part in the fight against climate change may be crucial. According to the recent report “Net Zero by 2050” by the International Energy Agency, behavioural change should lead to an emissions reduction of about 8%. Focusing on Europe, some mechanisms designed for reducing GHG are already implemented and mainly based on a Production Based Approach (PBA), so consider only those emissions produced within the national boundaries of the reference country. On the contrary, a Consumption Based Approach (CBA) allocates emission responsibility to the consumer of the corresponding good or service, highlighting the effect people choices have on GHG released. The present work aims at conceptualizing and simulating a market-based incentive mechanism, called BitCO2, to encourage less carbon-intensive consumer choices. The model involves three major stakeholders: consumers, insured people and insurance firm. They take part in the system to assure an emission reduction thanks to their choices. Analysing the household carbon footprint in Europe, transport sector results to be the most carbon intensive, passengers’ cars contribution is decisive. Thus, this mechanism is tested for the Italian private transport thanks to an ad hoc developed System Dynamics model. The Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) adoption, if compared with the Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV) one, cause less CO2 emissions per km travelled, but the electric car has a higher environmental impact related to the production. After having reach the emission parity, a BitCO2 is assigned to BEV owners for each ton of CO2 avoided. This token can be exchanged in two dedicated markets, one involves BEV owners and insured people and the other requires the participation of these last ones and insurance. Thanks to the first market, cars owner can gain a discount on the BEV’s purchase price; the second one is used to get a reduction on insurance services. Assuming a Social Cost of Carbon of 9.22 [2.13 – 22.3] €/tonCO2, model results show that the BitCO2 mechanism would allow for a cumulated CO2 emission reduction of 973 [68.9 – 5.230] ktonCO2eq over 20 years of operation with a peak of 39.3 [5.34 - 189] thousand additional BEV registration per year. Concluding, an active and willing participation of people in the fight against climate change may contribute to checkmate this issue.
La mitigazione dei cambiamenti climatici rappresenta una delle sfide più importanti del nostro tempo e comporta la riduzione delle emissioni nell’atmosfera dei gas climalteranti al fine di prevenire il surriscaldamento del pianeta. Secondo la Commissione Europea, al 2020 la concentrazione di CO2 nell'atmosfera è aumentata di circa il 48% rispetto al livello preindustriale. Il motivo della crescita delle emissioni è legato soprattutto ad attività umane, come l’impiego di combustibili fossili per la produzione di elettricità, per il riscaldamento e nei trasporti. Dal momento che le persone rappresentano la causa principale, la loro volontà di partecipare alla lotta contro il cambiamento climatico può essere cruciale. Secondo il recente studio "Net Zero by 2050" redatto da International Energy Agency, un cambiamento nel comportamento delle persone dovrebbe portare a una riduzione delle emissioni di circa 8%. Concentrandosi sull'Europa, alcuni meccanismi progettati per ridurre i gas a effetto serra sono già stati implementati e sono basati principalmente su un approccio di tipo Production Based (PBA), che considera solo le emissioni prodotte all'interno dei confini nazionali del Paese di riferimento. Al contrario, un approccio Consumption Based (CBA) assegna la responsabilità delle emissioni al consumatore del bene o del servizio corrispondente, evidenziando l'effetto che le scelte delle persone hanno sui gas a effetto serra rilasciati. Questo lavoro mira a concettualizzare e simulare un meccanismo di incentivazione, chiamato BitCO2, basato sul mercato con lo scopo di incoraggiare scelte a minor emissione di carbonio. Il modello coinvolge tre principali stakeholders: consumatori, assicurati e società di assicurazioni. La partecipazione di tutti è essenziale per garantire una riduzione dei gas a effetto serra grazie alle loro scelte. Analizzando l'impronta di carbonio delle famiglie in Europa, il settore dei trasporti risulta essere quello a più alta intensità di emissioni, con una quota dominante derivante dalle auto private. Per questo, il presente meccanismo viene testato sul trasporto privato italiano grazie ad un modello di System Dynamics sviluppato ad hoc. L'adozione del veicolo dotato di batteria elettrica (BEV), se confrontata con quello a combustione interna (ICEV), causa meno emissioni di CO2 per km percorsi, ma ha un maggiore impatto ambientale legato alla produzione. Dopo aver raggiunto la parità ambientale, viene assegnato un BitCO2 ai proprietari di macchine elettriche per ogni tonnellata di CO2 evitata. Questo token può essere scambiato in due mercati dedicati, uno coinvolge i proprietari delle BEV e le persone assicurate e l'altro richiede la partecipazione di questi ultimi e della compagnia di assicurazione. Grazie al primo mercato, il consumatore può ottenere uno sconto sul prezzo di acquisto del veicolo elettrico; il secondo invece è utilizzato per ottenere una riduzione sui servizi assicurativi. Assumendo un costo sociale del carbonio pari a 9,22 [2,13 - 22,3] €/tonCO2eq, i risultati del modello mostrano che il meccanismo di BitCO2 consentirebbe una riduzione cumulata delle emissioni di CO2 pari a 973 [68,9 – 5.230] ktonCO2eq su 20 anni, con un picco di 39,3 [5,34 - 189] mila di ulteriori BEV registrate all'anno. In conclusione, una partecipazione attiva e volontaria delle persone alla lotta contro il cambiamento climatico può contribuire a vincere questo problema.
Modelling consumption-based carbon allocation mechanisms at individual level via system dynamics
Simonotti, Marta;Rovellini, Giorgia
2020/2021
Abstract
Climate change mitigation represents one of today’s biggest challenges and involves the reduction of heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere to prevent the planet from warming. According to the European Commission, by 2020 the CO2 concentration into the atmosphere had increased of about 48% above its preindustrial level. The principal cause related to the growth of emissions is linked to human activities, such as burning fossil fuels for electricity generation, heating and transport. Since people are the primary driver, their willingness to take part in the fight against climate change may be crucial. According to the recent report “Net Zero by 2050” by the International Energy Agency, behavioural change should lead to an emissions reduction of about 8%. Focusing on Europe, some mechanisms designed for reducing GHG are already implemented and mainly based on a Production Based Approach (PBA), so consider only those emissions produced within the national boundaries of the reference country. On the contrary, a Consumption Based Approach (CBA) allocates emission responsibility to the consumer of the corresponding good or service, highlighting the effect people choices have on GHG released. The present work aims at conceptualizing and simulating a market-based incentive mechanism, called BitCO2, to encourage less carbon-intensive consumer choices. The model involves three major stakeholders: consumers, insured people and insurance firm. They take part in the system to assure an emission reduction thanks to their choices. Analysing the household carbon footprint in Europe, transport sector results to be the most carbon intensive, passengers’ cars contribution is decisive. Thus, this mechanism is tested for the Italian private transport thanks to an ad hoc developed System Dynamics model. The Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) adoption, if compared with the Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV) one, cause less CO2 emissions per km travelled, but the electric car has a higher environmental impact related to the production. After having reach the emission parity, a BitCO2 is assigned to BEV owners for each ton of CO2 avoided. This token can be exchanged in two dedicated markets, one involves BEV owners and insured people and the other requires the participation of these last ones and insurance. Thanks to the first market, cars owner can gain a discount on the BEV’s purchase price; the second one is used to get a reduction on insurance services. Assuming a Social Cost of Carbon of 9.22 [2.13 – 22.3] €/tonCO2, model results show that the BitCO2 mechanism would allow for a cumulated CO2 emission reduction of 973 [68.9 – 5.230] ktonCO2eq over 20 years of operation with a peak of 39.3 [5.34 - 189] thousand additional BEV registration per year. Concluding, an active and willing participation of people in the fight against climate change may contribute to checkmate this issue.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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Descrizione: Modelling consumption-based carbon allocation mechanisms at individual level via System Dynamics
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/186957