The steady increase in GHG emissions from the transport sector, which is partially offsetting the achievements obtained in other areas, is driving Europe to adopt policies that encourage its progressive decarbonization in the light of the new targets for limiting average temperature rise declared in the Green Deal. Road transport, which accounts for 60% of the sector's emissions, has a key role to play in this respect. The development of new technologies that can enable a drastic reduction in road transport emissions in a very short timeframe is becoming economically sustainable. Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and fuel-cell vehicle (FCEV) technologies are the most promising solutions and the prospect of their large-scale deployment makes it necessary to assess the systemic implications, both economic and environmental, arising from the introduction of their respective supply chains. The objective of this study is therefore to analyze in detail the effects of a shift of the traditional car fleet in the Italian context to the new mobility technologies, assessing not only the operational impact of driving the vehicles, but also of the respective manufacturing segment as well as the infrastructural investments needed to create the conditions for their diffusion. Starting from the assumption that the systematic diffusion of both technologies needs the support of large investments and dedicated policies in order to make them cost-competitive, two scenarios are outlined that foresee a 60% penetration of BEVs or FCEVs in the Italian car fleet, thus reflecting the clear decision to fully invest in the adoption of a specific technology. The adoption of the supply and use framework allowed an extensive characterization of the interventions considered, outlining in detail the production processes of cars and their main components and making it possible to structure at systemic level the implications deriving from the introduction of the new supply chains. In addition, further considerations are made on the effects of some key features of the two cars in order to identify the best technological configuration which can lead to minimize the environmental burden in association with the most favourable economic implications for the Italian economy. The indicators used to quantify the impact of car substitution have been chosen to represent the economic, environmental and social dimensions and across all the scenarios outlined results seems promising for both BEVs and FCEVs. In particular, while FCEV technology emerges as the most dominant in both in terms of its potential to reduce GHG emissions and in GDP increase for the country, both technological solutions demonstrate how the displacement of traditional fuels is far more beneficial in comparison to the greater impact of manufacturing the new vehicles. Given the additional environmental burden related to car production, the analysis suggests that at least it can be economically profitable to intercept part of the GDP and high-skilled employement generated within the Italian economy, since they are mostly linked to the direct processes of manufacturing cars and their main components. This aspect is especially feasible for FCEVs rather than BEVs, whose supply chain delineates a greater reliance on foreign activities, in particular towards the exploitation of mining hubs for batteries production. The criticality of this process is highlighted by the fact that none of the major batteries currently in use in the automotive sector are associated with a significantly lower environmental burden but, on the other hand, investing in LFP batteries is outlined as the most cost-effective option and the one with the greatest benefits in the scope of creating a national production hub. The analysis thus manages to faithfully analize multiple aspects deriving from high penetration of BEVs or FCEVs that identify a completely different composition of the car fleet in a specific future timeframe, identified by year 2050. On the other hand, the static nature of the framework excludes the dynamic transition process in the previous 30 years, which could imply different economic conditions and stages of technical development of the cars and is therefore reserved for future investigations.
Il costante aumento nelle emissioni di gas serra da parte del settore dei trasporti, contribuendo a limitare parzialmente i risultati positivi ottenuti in altre aree, ha spinto l’Europa verso l’adozione di politiche che possano incoraggiare una progressiva decarbonizzazione in vista dei più recenti obbiettivi in merito al contenimento del rialzo della temperatura media globale stabiliti nel Green Deal. Il trasporto su strada, al quale vengono associate il 60% delle emissioni del settore, riveste un ruolo fondamentale al riguardo. Lo sviluppo di nuove tecnologie in grado di permetterene una drastica riduzione nelle emissioni in tempistiche ridotte sta diventando economicamente sostenibile. I veicoli a batterie elettriche (BEV) e a fuel cell (FCEV) costituiscono le soluzioni più promettenti e la prospettiva di una loro diffusione su larga scala rende necessario valutarne, sia dal punto di vista ambientale che da quello economico, le implicazioni sistemiche risultanti dall’introduzione delle rispettive supply chain. L’obbiettivo che lo studio si pone risulta quindi analizzare nel dettaglio gli effetti di una sostituzione del parco auto italiano a favore delle nuove tecnologie di trasporto, valutando non solo l’impatto operativo derivante dalla guida dei veicoli ma anche i rispettivi processi di produzione e i grandi investimenti infrastrutturali necessari per poterne permettere la diffusione. Partendo dalla valutazione che una diffusione sistematica di entrambe le tecnologie necessiti il supporto di massicci investimenti e incentivi per renderle economicamente competitive, vengono delineati due scenari che prevedono la penetrazione di BEVs o FCEVs per il 60% nel parco auto italiano, rappresentando così la scelta di investire chiaramente verso l’adozione di una specifica tecnologia. L’utilizzo del framework supply and use ha permesso una estensiva caratterizzazione degli interventi considerati, specificando dettagliatamente il processo produttivo delle auto insieme ai loro componenti principali e rendendo possibile strutturare a livello sistemico le implicazioni derivanti dall’introduzione delle nuove supply chain. In aggiunta, ulteriori considerazioni vengono eseguite sul ruolo di alcuni elementi chiave delle due auto al fine di poterne identificare la migliore configurazione tecnologica che garantisca la minimizzazione dell’impatto ambientale e, al tempo stesso, le implicazioni maggiormente positive per l’economia italiana. Gli indicatori utilizzati per quantificare l’impatto della sostituzione delle auto sono stati scelti per rappresentarne la dimensione economica, ambientale e sociale e, considerando tutti gli scenari delineati, i risultati sembrano essere promettenti sia per BEVs che FCEVs. In particolare, mentre la tecnologia FCEV emerge come la dominante sia nel potenziale di riduzione di emissioni serra che nella crescita di GDP fornita al paese, entrambe le tecnologie dimostrano come lo spiazzamento di combustibili tradizionali risulti essere in proporzione molto più vantaggioso rispetto al maggiore impatto derivante dalla produzione dei nuovi veicoli. Dato il maggiore impatto ambientale legato alla produzione delle auto, l’analisi suggerisce come almeno possa risultare economicamente vantaggioso intercettare parte del GDP e dell’impiego specializzato generati all’interno dell’economia italiana, dal momento che sono principalmente legati ai processi diretti di manifattura delle auto e dei loro componenti principali. Tale aspetto è specialmente attuabile per i FCEVs più che per i BEVs, la quale supply chain evidenzia una maggiore dipendenza in attività estere, in particolare verso lo sfruttamento dei giacimenti minerari per la produzione di batterie. La criticità di questo processo è messa in risalto dal fatto che nessuna tra le principali batterie attualmente utilizzate per applicazioni veicolari sia associata a un significativo minor impatto ambientale, anche se investire in batterie LFP viene identificata come la scelta economicamente più vantaggiosa e quella in grado di fornire i maggiori vantaggi nell’ottica di creazione di un hub nazionale di manifattura. L’analisi riesce quindi ad analizzare fedelmente molteplici aspetti derivanti dall’alta prenetrazione di BEVs o FCEVs che riflettono una struttura completamente diversa del parco auto in uno specifico orizzonte temporale futuro, identificato nell’anno 2050. La natura statica del framework, tuttavia, esclude il processo dinamico di transizione nei 30 anni precedenti, che potrebbe implicare differenti condizioni economiche e livelli di sviluppo tecnologico delle auto e che pertanto viene riservato a future investigazioni.
Technical, environmental and economic assessment of different decarbonization strategies towards low-carbon private transport sector
Arlango, Enrico
2020/2021
Abstract
The steady increase in GHG emissions from the transport sector, which is partially offsetting the achievements obtained in other areas, is driving Europe to adopt policies that encourage its progressive decarbonization in the light of the new targets for limiting average temperature rise declared in the Green Deal. Road transport, which accounts for 60% of the sector's emissions, has a key role to play in this respect. The development of new technologies that can enable a drastic reduction in road transport emissions in a very short timeframe is becoming economically sustainable. Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and fuel-cell vehicle (FCEV) technologies are the most promising solutions and the prospect of their large-scale deployment makes it necessary to assess the systemic implications, both economic and environmental, arising from the introduction of their respective supply chains. The objective of this study is therefore to analyze in detail the effects of a shift of the traditional car fleet in the Italian context to the new mobility technologies, assessing not only the operational impact of driving the vehicles, but also of the respective manufacturing segment as well as the infrastructural investments needed to create the conditions for their diffusion. Starting from the assumption that the systematic diffusion of both technologies needs the support of large investments and dedicated policies in order to make them cost-competitive, two scenarios are outlined that foresee a 60% penetration of BEVs or FCEVs in the Italian car fleet, thus reflecting the clear decision to fully invest in the adoption of a specific technology. The adoption of the supply and use framework allowed an extensive characterization of the interventions considered, outlining in detail the production processes of cars and their main components and making it possible to structure at systemic level the implications deriving from the introduction of the new supply chains. In addition, further considerations are made on the effects of some key features of the two cars in order to identify the best technological configuration which can lead to minimize the environmental burden in association with the most favourable economic implications for the Italian economy. The indicators used to quantify the impact of car substitution have been chosen to represent the economic, environmental and social dimensions and across all the scenarios outlined results seems promising for both BEVs and FCEVs. In particular, while FCEV technology emerges as the most dominant in both in terms of its potential to reduce GHG emissions and in GDP increase for the country, both technological solutions demonstrate how the displacement of traditional fuels is far more beneficial in comparison to the greater impact of manufacturing the new vehicles. Given the additional environmental burden related to car production, the analysis suggests that at least it can be economically profitable to intercept part of the GDP and high-skilled employement generated within the Italian economy, since they are mostly linked to the direct processes of manufacturing cars and their main components. This aspect is especially feasible for FCEVs rather than BEVs, whose supply chain delineates a greater reliance on foreign activities, in particular towards the exploitation of mining hubs for batteries production. The criticality of this process is highlighted by the fact that none of the major batteries currently in use in the automotive sector are associated with a significantly lower environmental burden but, on the other hand, investing in LFP batteries is outlined as the most cost-effective option and the one with the greatest benefits in the scope of creating a national production hub. The analysis thus manages to faithfully analize multiple aspects deriving from high penetration of BEVs or FCEVs that identify a completely different composition of the car fleet in a specific future timeframe, identified by year 2050. On the other hand, the static nature of the framework excludes the dynamic transition process in the previous 30 years, which could imply different economic conditions and stages of technical development of the cars and is therefore reserved for future investigations.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/187687