Energy protocol for sizing, planning and operation of the 3rd generation mini-grid in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is the region with the highest rate of people living without access to electricity in the world. In 2019, the region registered around 620 million people deprived of access to electricity, but this number was expected to decrease over time due to the SDG 7 goal. However, owing to the pandemic impact, several years of progress are being reversed and the number of people without electricity access in SSA is most likely to have grown in 2020 hitherto, and it may have made basic energy services inaccessible to nearly 100 million people who already had electrical connections. For instance, in Mozambique, only 38% of the population has access to electricity and the majority population is living in rural areas in extreme poverty caused by lack of electricity, lack of income, education, and healthcare. SSA is a region endowed with untapped and inexhaustible energy resources. Nevertheless, mini-grids are not a new phenomenon, for almost more than 20 years, public services have owned and operated off-grid diesel generators for remote villages. Therefore, energy development is increasing in the region, although it is not fast enough, because of a set of barriers that are undermining the development of the mini-grids in rural settlements, such as Energy Policy and Regulatory barriers, Economic and financial barriers, technological and human resources barriers, social and geographical barriers, and some other challenges. The lack of clear and effective energy policy and regulatory framework are the main barriers. However, Mozambique can meet the need for off-grid electrification using its vast renewable resources, such as solar resources with a significant technical potential estimated at roughly 23 TW. As the target is to achieve SDG 7 goal, there is a chain of events underway in SSA, especially in Mozambique, promoted by several institutions, which aims to unlock some barriers. Therefore, the creation of an energy protocol will spur the energy sector to use it as a guideline for third-generation mini-grid development and will be used by other institutions such as the private sector, NGOs, partners, academies, policymakers, and others. In addition, according to World Bank, it is necessary to keep striving to reach SDG 7 goal and develop studies related to third-generation mini-grid systems using renewable energy resources to tackle the energy crisis in SSA. This research analyzes different mini-grid problems in the region and will focus on the systems deployed in Mozambique as a case study. The required data were collected considering four different mini-grids belonging to FUNAE addressing various kinds of problems, such as I)- Oversized and undersized mini-grids; ii)- Mini-grid without backup system and works less than 24h; iii)- Low power generation to meet demand; iv)- Frequent mini-grid shutdown; v)- Lack of standard model and effective mini-grid deployment and management process. This study is based on the case study approach. This research approach can be used to describe, explore, or investigate events or phenomena and can provide more information on the gaps in its execution or why one implementation technique was chosen over another. By analyzing the case study, it is expected to deeply understand the issues that trigger these problems, why these issues arose, to identify desirable or possible solutions using the theory/experience suggested by the research and learn a lesson from it, and required actions to propose improvements, to present a realistic implementation plan, and present viable recommendations. This study considers five different case studies addressing all the above-mentioned problems in Ndoro village, Garagua mini-grid, Chissinguana mini-grid, Mecula mini-grid, and Muôha mini-hydropower, and properly considered the challenges of each mini-grid which need to be addressed are as follows: In Mecula Village the system is oversized, while in Chissinguana Village the mini-grid was installed without diesel generator as a backup system (undersized), in Garagua village the system was installed properly but it has frequent shutdown problem (undersized), and in Muôha village the system was deployed without a backup diesel generator, battery bank, and has one source of power generation (water - river). Therefore, in the dry season, the river runs out of water and the community is left in the dark. There is frequent system shutdown because the electricity generated is not enough to fulfill the demand. Apart from the above-mentioned case studies, a case study in Sofala Province where there is a small community in Ndoro Village with 19,161 people living deprived of electricity. To meet SGD 7 goal, is intended to develop a study from scratch to propose a model for the installation of a mini-grid system in the area. This study includes the development of an effective feasibility study, such as resources assessment, demand estimation, and forecasts the load growth and sizing. From scientific literature is very difficult to find cases in which all these challenges and barriers are discussed together. This study took into consideration all these aspects and will also help to bridge the existing gap in grey literature, as it is also necessary for those who are doing this work in the field such as the Energy Fund (FUNAE), which is the apex institution in Mozambique established to tackle the problem of off-grid in rural areas, with more than 24 years’ experience, prove the lack of proper energy planning protocols. Due to the abovementioned challenges, there is a great need to introduce an energy protocol that will be used as a guideline for mini-grid development in a remote settlement. The present research is focused on the development of protocols often called standard information models for sizing, planning, and operation of the third-generation mini-grid system, to regulate and promote the good practices of deployment, distribution, and use of energy in remote communities. Therefore, the objective of this study is the 1) creation of an energy protocol, also known as standard information models, for the third-generation mini-grid system's sizing, planning, and operation, 2) resize and optimize the mini-grid by considering economic, technical, and environmental factors by adapting and modifying the features for appropriate energy modeling using the MicroGridsPY model. The idea is to propose an energy protocol that can support a sort of standardized procedure for promoting the penetration of a mini-grid. The result of the study is to: - Re-sizing the formerly installed systems to solve the problem of oversized mini-grid, using modeling tools such as RAMP and MicroGridsPy to mitigate the shutdown problem. - Proposing a standard mini-grid design with a backup system, to be used when there is no sun for power generation which can supply electricity 24h. - Estimating baseline electricity demand considering different scenarios to predict the electricity demand growth over time (using an open-source RAMP model), to refrain from generating electricity that will not fulfill the demand after 3, 4, or 5 years. - Deliver a mini-grid system model from scratch for Ndoro Village considering the steps proposed in the energy protocol (Need Identification, Diagnosis and Solution Planning, Technical and Comprehensive Design, and Impact Evaluation). The application and integration of a similar approach of comprehensive structure may lead towards such aims based on effective and simplest integration of the different stages found in the literature, leading to the framework of Comprehensive Energy Solution Planning (CESP), the so-called energy protocol. The protocol is an assembly of steps and instruments and aims to be the standardized procedure for better sizing and optimization of mini-grids. It consists of several steps that allow us to do Comprehensive energy solution planning and encompasses different activities. The first step of the protocol is a) CESP1 - Priority consists of the identification of the most important need for the local village, followed by ii) CESP2 - Diagnosis and Solution Planning phase, where the resource assessment of the existing potential resource and the estimation of the load demand and solution identification of the most suitable technology for power generation is implemented, and sizing the best-optimized system and business and financial model identification is the iii) CESP3 – Technical and Comprehensive Design phase. The last phase is the iv) CESP4 - Impact Evaluation devoted to evaluating the activities carried out from the first phase up to the last and analyzing the reliability of the data gathered. In a nutshell, the achieved outcome of this study will impact positively the scientific area and societal communities. The results of this study will help close the gap between the scientific and grey literature because it is also required for those working in the field, including the private sector, community cooperatives, associations, and government organizations like Energy Fund - FUNAE, which was established to address the issue of off-grid energy in rural areas. Additionally, it will offer recommendations to government, utility, and international decision-makers and strengthen international collaboration initiatives that speed up the development and implementation of the smart mini-grid as a substantial and sustainable renewable energy source. The development of energy protocols is crucial for attaining both COP26 and SDG7 goals, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) nations where more than 50% of the populace still does not have access to power.