Strategic foresight is an invaluable methodology that helps organizations understand and proactively address uncertainties in the future. As a field that is continuously evolving, strategic foresight offers various qualitative and quantitative methods and approaches that focus on different stages and leverage diverse knowledge sources. In this dynamic context, it is essential to comprehend the approaches adopted by companies and the key factors they should consider when selecting the most suitable approach. This research aims to provide practical insights on how to position companies’ approaches and align them with specific objectives. To achieve this, a diversified sample of nine companies was constructed. Data were collected through qualitative interviews and extensive desk research. To conduct a comprehensive within-case analysis, a set of variables was developed, focusing on two key dimensions: orientation (which includes exploration and action) and insight source (which includes evidence, creativity, and participation). The analysis identified three distinct clusters and each cluster signifies specific areas of emphasis and strategic orientations. The clusters are as follows: "Foresight Capability Building," which prioritizes creativity and participation, aiming to explore unconventional ideas, employ creative methodologies, and enhance clients’ foresight capabilities; "Foresight for Future Intelligence" which focuses on leveraging data-driven approaches and advanced technologies to gather intelligence; and "Foresight for Strategic Planning" which emphasizes delivering actionable plans and implementing strategies to shape the future. Moreover, the study revealed the significant role of artificial intelligence in strategic foresight activities. AI is instrumental in managing vast amounts of information, automating repetitive tasks, and providing fresh insights that serve as a starting point for ideation and brainstorming sessions. In conclusion, this study empowers organizations by offering practical insights on how to strategically position their approaches and align them with specific objectives. It also benefits researchers by providing a lens through which they can effectively analyze and study foresight cases, thereby contributing to the broader knowledge in the field.
"Strategic foresight" è una metodologia che aiuta le organizzazioni a comprendere e affrontare in modo proattivo le incertezze future. Come campo in costante evoluzione, offre vari metodi e approcci qualitativi e quantitativi che si concentrano su diverse fasi e sfruttano fonti di conoscenza diverse. In questo contesto dinamico, è essenziale comprendere gli approcci adottati dalle aziende e i fattori chiave che dovrebbero considerare nella scelta dell’approccio più adatto. Questa ricerca mira a fornire indicazioni pratiche su come posizionare gli approcci delle aziende e allinearli a obiettivi specifici. Per raggiungere questo obiettivo, è stato costruito un campione diversificato di 9 aziende. I dati sono stati raccolti attraverso interviste qualitative e approfondite ricerche su fonti secondarie. Per condurre efficacemente una "within case analysis", è stato sviluppato un insieme di variabili, concentrandosi su due dimensioni chiave: orientation (che include esploration e action) e insight source (che include evidence, creativity e participation). L’analisi ha identificato tre distinti gruppi e ciascuno di essi indica specifiche aree di enfasi e orientamenti strategici. I gruppi sono i seguenti: "Foresight Capability Building", che privilegia la creatività e la partecipazione, mirando a esplorare idee non convenzionali, utilizzare metodologie creative e potenziare le capacità di foresight dei clienti; "Foresight for Future Intelligence" che si concentra sull’utilizzo di approcci basati su dati e tecnologie avanzate per costruire intelligence; e "Foresight for Strategic Planning" che enfatizza la consegna di piani d’azione concreti e l’implementazione di strategie per plasmare il futuro. Inoltre, lo studio ha rivelato il ruolo significativo dell’intelligenza artificiale nelle attività di previsione strategica. L’IA è fondamentale per gestire grandi quantità di informazioni, automatizzare compiti ripetitivi e fornire nuove intuizioni che fungono da punto di partenza per sessioni di ideazione e brainstorming. In conclusione, questo studio dà potere alle organizzazioni offrendo indicazioni pratiche su come posizionare strategicamente i loro approcci e allinearli a obiettivi specifici. Inoltre, beneficia i ricercatori fornendo uno strumento attraverso il quale possono analizzare e studiare in modo efficace diversi casi di foresight, contribuendo così allo sviluppo generale del campo.
Strategic foresight: a taxonomy based on orientation and insight source
Cosentino, Andrea
2022/2023
Abstract
Strategic foresight is an invaluable methodology that helps organizations understand and proactively address uncertainties in the future. As a field that is continuously evolving, strategic foresight offers various qualitative and quantitative methods and approaches that focus on different stages and leverage diverse knowledge sources. In this dynamic context, it is essential to comprehend the approaches adopted by companies and the key factors they should consider when selecting the most suitable approach. This research aims to provide practical insights on how to position companies’ approaches and align them with specific objectives. To achieve this, a diversified sample of nine companies was constructed. Data were collected through qualitative interviews and extensive desk research. To conduct a comprehensive within-case analysis, a set of variables was developed, focusing on two key dimensions: orientation (which includes exploration and action) and insight source (which includes evidence, creativity, and participation). The analysis identified three distinct clusters and each cluster signifies specific areas of emphasis and strategic orientations. The clusters are as follows: "Foresight Capability Building," which prioritizes creativity and participation, aiming to explore unconventional ideas, employ creative methodologies, and enhance clients’ foresight capabilities; "Foresight for Future Intelligence" which focuses on leveraging data-driven approaches and advanced technologies to gather intelligence; and "Foresight for Strategic Planning" which emphasizes delivering actionable plans and implementing strategies to shape the future. Moreover, the study revealed the significant role of artificial intelligence in strategic foresight activities. AI is instrumental in managing vast amounts of information, automating repetitive tasks, and providing fresh insights that serve as a starting point for ideation and brainstorming sessions. In conclusion, this study empowers organizations by offering practical insights on how to strategically position their approaches and align them with specific objectives. It also benefits researchers by providing a lens through which they can effectively analyze and study foresight cases, thereby contributing to the broader knowledge in the field.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/211251