Sea level rise, as a crucial aspect of climate change, has a significant impact on the coastal areas around the world. It has been threatening many lives, lands, ecosystems and infrastructures by the sea and depending on the future climate storylines, it will continue to rise with the same rate or accelerates to rise which consequently will impact severe effect on future costal area. In this research, we assess the coastal vulnerability, assuming that the observed trend of sea level rise during 2005 to 2015 will continue to rise with the same rate until the end of the century. To accomplish this, we utilize GIS-based tools to simulate the coastal flood considering the current understanding of regionally differentiated relative sea-level rise. Analyzing the inundation maps enables us to visualize the potential impacts on coastal regions throughout the 21st century and assess the potential at-risk lands and populations. Our approach involves simulating future sea level heights by integrating data from various sources. We then use the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to characterize the land surface, allowing us to produce detailed inundation maps. For this study, we focus on a bounding box of the Baltic and North Sea coastal areas, that contains German coastal region. However, the data and methodology are globally applicable. The vulnerability assessment of the study area showcases different susceptibility of the Baltic and North Sea with respect to SLR due to different characteristics of the two seas. It is concluded that in total 1,942 km2 of the coastal region in the study area will be flooded due to sea level rise during 2020 to 2100, averaging 24.3 km2 per year. Additionally, it's projected that 153,116 individuals from the current inhabitants and 40,737 individuals of the projected population of the study area will be affected between 2020 and 2100, with an average of approximately 1,914 people per year.
L’innalzamento del livello del mare, in quanto aspetto cruciale del cambiamento climatico, ha un impatto significativo sulle aree costiere di tutto il mondo. Ha minacciato molte vite, terre, ecosistemi e infrastrutture in riva al mare e, a seconda delle future trame climatiche, continuerà a crescere con lo stesso ritmo o accelererà la sua crescita, il che di conseguenza avrà gravi effetti sulla futura area costiera. In questa ricerca, valutiamo la vulnerabilità costiera, assumendo che la tendenza osservata dell’innalzamento del livello del mare tra il 2005 e il 2015 continuerà ad aumentare con lo stesso ritmo fino alla fine del secolo. Per raggiungere questo obiettivo, utilizziamo strumenti basati su GIS per simulare l’inondazione costiera considerando l’attuale comprensione dell’innalzamento relativo del livello del mare differenziato a livello regionale. L’analisi delle mappe delle inondazioni ci consente di visualizzare i potenziali impatti sulle regioni costiere nel corso del 21° secolo e di valutare i territori e le popolazioni potenzialmente a rischio. Il nostro approccio prevede la simulazione delle future altezze del livello del mare integrando dati provenienti da varie fonti. Utilizziamo quindi il modello digitale di elevazione (DEM) per caratterizzare la superficie terrestre, consentendoci di produrre mappe dettagliate delle inondazioni. Per questo studio, ci concentriamo su un riquadro di delimitazione delle aree costiere del Baltico e del Mare del Nord, che contiene la regione costiera tedesca. Tuttavia, i dati e la metodologia utilizzati sono applicabili a livello globale. La valutazione della vulnerabilità dell’area di studio mostra una diversa suscettibilità del Baltico e del Mare del Nord rispetto alla SLR a causa delle diverse caratteristiche dei due mari. Si conclude che in totale 1.942 km2 della regione costiera nell’area di studio saranno inondati a causa dell’innalzamento del livello del mare nel periodo 2020-2100, con una media di 24,3 km2 all’anno. Inoltre, si prevede che tra il 2020 e il 2100 saranno colpiti 153.116 individui degli attuali abitanti e 40.737 individui della popolazione prevista dell'area di studio, con una media di circa 1.914 persone all'anno.
Global Sea Level Rise and Coastal Vulnerability Assessed via Inundation Maps
GHOLAMI BOURANI, SAHAR
2022/2023
Abstract
Sea level rise, as a crucial aspect of climate change, has a significant impact on the coastal areas around the world. It has been threatening many lives, lands, ecosystems and infrastructures by the sea and depending on the future climate storylines, it will continue to rise with the same rate or accelerates to rise which consequently will impact severe effect on future costal area. In this research, we assess the coastal vulnerability, assuming that the observed trend of sea level rise during 2005 to 2015 will continue to rise with the same rate until the end of the century. To accomplish this, we utilize GIS-based tools to simulate the coastal flood considering the current understanding of regionally differentiated relative sea-level rise. Analyzing the inundation maps enables us to visualize the potential impacts on coastal regions throughout the 21st century and assess the potential at-risk lands and populations. Our approach involves simulating future sea level heights by integrating data from various sources. We then use the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to characterize the land surface, allowing us to produce detailed inundation maps. For this study, we focus on a bounding box of the Baltic and North Sea coastal areas, that contains German coastal region. However, the data and methodology are globally applicable. The vulnerability assessment of the study area showcases different susceptibility of the Baltic and North Sea with respect to SLR due to different characteristics of the two seas. It is concluded that in total 1,942 km2 of the coastal region in the study area will be flooded due to sea level rise during 2020 to 2100, averaging 24.3 km2 per year. Additionally, it's projected that 153,116 individuals from the current inhabitants and 40,737 individuals of the projected population of the study area will be affected between 2020 and 2100, with an average of approximately 1,914 people per year.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/214566