Colombia has an important renewable electric penetration, which could potentially be exploited for green hydrogen production, which could finally be used to decarbonize part of the transport sector and/or for export to a key partner the EU. In this study, a hydrogen supply chain is proposed to cover a national demand of compressed hydrogen to be used for meeting heavy transport fuel demand, and an international of liquid hydrogen to be shipped to Europe. To investigate possible strategies to meet these two different demands, a multi-carrier energy model was built. The energy model built represents Colombia as 4 different nodes, characterized by demand for diesel and electricity for the year 2021. Evolving from this model, three hydrogen demand scenarios are proposed for the year 2030. The scenarios cover different hydrogen supply chains depending on whether the hydrogen is only used to substitute part of the diesel demand or only for export to the EU, a Substitute Diesel and Export Scenario in which hydrogen is produced for the national demand and exported is also done. As the hydrogen production is planned to rely on grid capacity, two different cases are considered for each of the three scenarios, based on whether the projected electricity supply capacity planned for 2030 is successfully installed or not. This is done to take into account the possibility that the projects currently planned will fail to become operative due to social protests and recent tax reform. Finally, a third case is proposed, considering the construction of stand-alone power plants to feed the electrolyzers for hydrogen production, in which hydrogen is only produced by wind and solar power plants located in the Caribbean region. Connecting the hydrogen production to the grid is an attractive option to exploit the large hydropower plant capacity of Colombia, however, the cost of the electricity is higher than the one produced by stand-alone wind and solar power plants, making the hydrogen cost higher than in the off-grid case. Moreover, if the planned electric capacity is not successfully installed, the green hydrogen supply will be economically infeasible. In conclusion, Colombia’s hydrogen strategy should be focused on stand-alone plants and could cover 1% of the EU’s 2030 hydrogen demand, while covering its hydrogen ambition cost-effectively.
La Colombia ha un'importante penetrazione elettrica rinnovabile, che potrebbe potenzialmente essere sfruttata per la produzione di idrogeno verde. Tale risorsa potrebbe essere impiegata concretamente per la decarbonizzazione di una parte significativa del settore dei trasporti e/o per la sua esportazione verso partner strategici, come l'Unione Europea. In questo studio viene proposta una catena di approvvigionamento dell’idrogeno per coprire una domanda nazionale di idrogeno compresso e una internazionale di idrogeno liquido; per fare ciò è stato costruito un modello energetico composto da 4 nodi di diesel ed elettricità come vettori energetici per l'anno 2021. Nel quadro di questo modello, vengono delineati tre scenari per l'anno 2030, ciascuno dei quali esplora diverse modalità di catene di approvvigionamento di idrogeno. Tali scenari si differenziano in base all'utilizzo dell'idrogeno, che può essere impiegato esclusivamente per sostituire una frazione della domanda di diesel o esclusivamente per l'esportazione verso l'Unione Europea. Inoltre, è stato realizzato uno scenario misto in cui l'idrogeno viene prodotto per la domanda nazionale e per l'esportazione. Poiché il modello si basa sulla capacità della rete, sono stati proposti due casi per ciascuno dei tre scenari in cui la capacità elettrica prevista per il 2030 viene installata con successo o meno. In questo modo si è voluto modellare l'impatto della cancellazione di alcuni progetti elettrici a causa di proteste sociali e di una recente riforma fiscale. Successivamente, per confrontare i risultati dei casi e degli scenari, è stato proposto un impianto off-grid, in cui l'idrogeno è prodotto solo da centrali eoliche e solari situate nella regione caraibica. Collegare la produzione di idrogeno alla rete è un'opzione interessante per sfruttare la capacità delle grandi centrali idroelettriche della Colombia; tuttavia, il costo dell'elettricità è più elevato rispetto a quello prodotto da impianti fotovoltaici ed eolici, il che rende il costo dell'idrogeno superiore all’impianto off-grid. Se la capacità elettrica proposta non dovesse essere installata con successo, una fornitura di idrogeno verde non sarebbe fattibile e se venisse installata non sarebbe economicamente competitiva rispetto a un impianto autonomo. La strategia colombiana per l'idrogeno dovrebbe quindi concentrarsi sugli impianti stand alone e potrebbe coprire l'1% della domanda di idrogeno dell'UE per il 2030, soddisfacendo al contempo le proprie ambizioni in materia di idrogeno in modo economicamente vantaggioso.
Evaluating green hydrogen strategies in Colombia: heavy transport and exports through energy system modelling
CUERVO RENGIFO, GUILLERMO ANDRES
2023/2024
Abstract
Colombia has an important renewable electric penetration, which could potentially be exploited for green hydrogen production, which could finally be used to decarbonize part of the transport sector and/or for export to a key partner the EU. In this study, a hydrogen supply chain is proposed to cover a national demand of compressed hydrogen to be used for meeting heavy transport fuel demand, and an international of liquid hydrogen to be shipped to Europe. To investigate possible strategies to meet these two different demands, a multi-carrier energy model was built. The energy model built represents Colombia as 4 different nodes, characterized by demand for diesel and electricity for the year 2021. Evolving from this model, three hydrogen demand scenarios are proposed for the year 2030. The scenarios cover different hydrogen supply chains depending on whether the hydrogen is only used to substitute part of the diesel demand or only for export to the EU, a Substitute Diesel and Export Scenario in which hydrogen is produced for the national demand and exported is also done. As the hydrogen production is planned to rely on grid capacity, two different cases are considered for each of the three scenarios, based on whether the projected electricity supply capacity planned for 2030 is successfully installed or not. This is done to take into account the possibility that the projects currently planned will fail to become operative due to social protests and recent tax reform. Finally, a third case is proposed, considering the construction of stand-alone power plants to feed the electrolyzers for hydrogen production, in which hydrogen is only produced by wind and solar power plants located in the Caribbean region. Connecting the hydrogen production to the grid is an attractive option to exploit the large hydropower plant capacity of Colombia, however, the cost of the electricity is higher than the one produced by stand-alone wind and solar power plants, making the hydrogen cost higher than in the off-grid case. Moreover, if the planned electric capacity is not successfully installed, the green hydrogen supply will be economically infeasible. In conclusion, Colombia’s hydrogen strategy should be focused on stand-alone plants and could cover 1% of the EU’s 2030 hydrogen demand, while covering its hydrogen ambition cost-effectively.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/218225