In the last decades climate change has played a key role in the intensification of the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, causing significant economic losses and making the development of rapid and effective Early Warning Systems necessary, in order to protect both the population and its real estate assets. Debris flow phenomena consist of rapid flows of sediment moving along drainage channels in mountainous areas, primarily triggered by rainfall events with intense sub-hourly peaks. This study focuses on the analysis of the geomorphological, hydrological, and meteorological context and proposes the design and subsequent implementation of non-structural measures aimed at monitoring and defending the municipal territory of Blevio, located on the western shore of Lake Como. The proposed system integrates, through a cascading procedure, data from various sources such as: local-scale meteorological models (LAM), weather radar, radiosonde investigations, and regional weather warning bulletins, to provide site-specific forecasts of the potential occurrence of a debris flow event. The investigation consists in the analysis and subsequent processing of historical rainfall data to identify a threshold value for precipitation (and flow) triggering; based on these indicators, the emergency procedure is activated according to a color-coded alert system. The result is a dynamic system that allows for a rapid response in situations of potential emergency, reducing risks to both the inhabitants of the municipality and local infrastructure. In addition to the technical component, the communication of risk to the public and local authorities was also assessed, with the aim of ensuring effective propagation of alerts.
Il cambiamento climatico negli ultimi decenni ha intensificato la frequenza e l’intensità di fenomeni meteorologici estremi, causando ingenti perdite economiche e rendendo quindi necessaria la realizzazione di sistemi di allertamento tempestivi ed efficaci, a tutela della popolazione e del patrimonio immobile. I fenomeni di colamento detritico, in inglese debris flow, sono dei rapidi flussi di sedimenti movimentati lungo impluvi in aree montane, innescati prevalentemente da eventi di pioggia caratterizzati da intensi picchi sub-orari. Questo studio si concentra sull’analisi del contesto geomorfologico, idrologico e meteoclimatico e propone la progettazione e successiva implementazione di misure non strutturali volte al monitoraggio ed alla difesa del territorio comunale di Blevio, situato sulla sponda comasca del Lago di Como. Il sistema proposto integra, attraverso un procedimento a cascata, dati provenienti da diverse fonti come: modelli meteorologici a scala locale (LAM), radar meteorologici, radiosondaggi atmosferici e bollettini di allerta meteo regionali, per fornire previsioni sito-specifiche della possibile occorrenza di un fenomeno di colata detritica. Lo studio si è focalizzato sull’analisi e la successiva elaborazione di dati pluviometrici storici volti all’identificazione di un valor soglia di precipitazione (e portata) innescante; attraverso questi indicatori viene attivata la procedura d’emergenza secondo codice colore. Il risultato è un sistema dinamico che consente una risposta rapida in situazioni di potenziale emergenza, riducendo il rischio per la popolazione e per le infrastrutture locali. Oltre alla componente tecnica, sono stati valutati gli aspetti di comunicazione del rischio verso la cittadinanza e le autorità locali, con l'obiettivo di garantire un'efficace diffusione delle allerte.
Sviluppo di un sistema di early warning a mitigazione di fenomeni di debris flow innescati da eventi meteorologici intensi: il caso di studio per il comune di Blevio
Ferrozzi, Gian Guido;Iacovitti, Greta
2023/2024
Abstract
In the last decades climate change has played a key role in the intensification of the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, causing significant economic losses and making the development of rapid and effective Early Warning Systems necessary, in order to protect both the population and its real estate assets. Debris flow phenomena consist of rapid flows of sediment moving along drainage channels in mountainous areas, primarily triggered by rainfall events with intense sub-hourly peaks. This study focuses on the analysis of the geomorphological, hydrological, and meteorological context and proposes the design and subsequent implementation of non-structural measures aimed at monitoring and defending the municipal territory of Blevio, located on the western shore of Lake Como. The proposed system integrates, through a cascading procedure, data from various sources such as: local-scale meteorological models (LAM), weather radar, radiosonde investigations, and regional weather warning bulletins, to provide site-specific forecasts of the potential occurrence of a debris flow event. The investigation consists in the analysis and subsequent processing of historical rainfall data to identify a threshold value for precipitation (and flow) triggering; based on these indicators, the emergency procedure is activated according to a color-coded alert system. The result is a dynamic system that allows for a rapid response in situations of potential emergency, reducing risks to both the inhabitants of the municipality and local infrastructure. In addition to the technical component, the communication of risk to the public and local authorities was also assessed, with the aim of ensuring effective propagation of alerts.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/230648