The banking system has always been of major importance within the economy because it ensures intermediation, which is fundamental to its functioning. But precisely because of their function, banks are exposed to various risks, first and foremost the risk of insolvency. This causes the deterioration of loans, which turn into Non-Performing Loans. The main topic of this paper, Non-Performing Loans, are exposures to entities that, due to a deterioration of their domestic economic and financial situation, are unable to fulfil their contractual obligations. An introduction to the context will then be presented, followed by a definition and classification of NPLs. The regulatory context and the relative role of supervision will then be analysed, followed by a historical analysis to understand how the growth of NPLs has occurred over the years since the triggering phenomenon, the 2008 financial crisis. The focus will then shift to Italy, examining in particular the NPL market over the last decade and delving into its quantitative aspect. The main credit quality indicators and their evolution to date will then be analysed. A forecast for future data, essential to understand their evolution, will also be presented. It is also very important to be able to understand how best to manage this category of loans, and for this reason the most important NPL management strategies will be discussed, highlighting pros and cons and areas of application. Among these, we will focus on securitisation, the most widely used management method. Its main types and areas of application will then be defined. Attention will then be focused on the most significant ones in the Italian market in the last decade, through a quantitative, qualitative and cross-sectional analysis. Finally, the impact of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, on NPL management will be assessed.
Il sistema bancario è sempre stato di rilevante importanza all’ interno dell’economia poiché garantisce l’intermediazione, fondamentale per il suo funzionamento. Ma proprio per la loro funzione, le banche sono esposte a diversi rischi, primo fra tutti il rischio di insolvenza. Questo provoca il deterioramento dei crediti, i quali si trasformano in Non-Performing Loans. Argomento cardine di questo elaborato, i Non-Performing Loans, sono esposizioni verso soggetti che, a causa di un peggioramento della situazione economica e finanziaria interna, non sono in grado di adempiere alle proprie obbligazioni contrattuali. Verrà quindi presentata una introduzione al contesto, cui seguirà la definizione e classificazione di quest’ultimi. Si analizzerà poi il contesto normativo e il relativo ruolo della Supervisione, seguita da un’analisi storica per comprendere come è avvenuta la crescita degli NPL negli anni a partire dal fenomeno scatenante, la crisi finanziaria del 2008. Il focus poi si sposterà sull’Italia esaminandone in particolare il mercato degli NPL nell’ultimo decennio e approfondendone l’aspetto quantitativo. Verranno quindi analizzati i principali indicatori di qualità del credito e la loro evoluzione fino ad oggi. Verrà presentata anche una previsione per i dati futuri, essenziale per comprenderne l’evoluzione. È molto importante inoltre riuscire a comprendere come gestire al meglio questa categoria di crediti e per questo motivo verranno trattate le più importanti strategie di gestione degli NPL evidenziando pro e contro e gli ambiti di applicazione. Tra queste, ci si focalizzerà sulle cartolarizzazioni, il metodo di gestione più utilizzato. Ne verranno quindi definite le principali tipologie e i relativi ambiti di applicazione. Si porrà l’attenzione poi sulle più significative nel mercato Italiano nell’ultimo decennio, attraverso un’analisi quantitativa, qualitativa e trasversale. Infine, verrà valutato l’impatto delle nuove tecnologie, quali l’intelligenza artificiale, sulla gestione degli NPL.
Non-performing loans in italy: market dynamics, management strategies, securitization and the role of AI
Fumoso, Federica
2023/2024
Abstract
The banking system has always been of major importance within the economy because it ensures intermediation, which is fundamental to its functioning. But precisely because of their function, banks are exposed to various risks, first and foremost the risk of insolvency. This causes the deterioration of loans, which turn into Non-Performing Loans. The main topic of this paper, Non-Performing Loans, are exposures to entities that, due to a deterioration of their domestic economic and financial situation, are unable to fulfil their contractual obligations. An introduction to the context will then be presented, followed by a definition and classification of NPLs. The regulatory context and the relative role of supervision will then be analysed, followed by a historical analysis to understand how the growth of NPLs has occurred over the years since the triggering phenomenon, the 2008 financial crisis. The focus will then shift to Italy, examining in particular the NPL market over the last decade and delving into its quantitative aspect. The main credit quality indicators and their evolution to date will then be analysed. A forecast for future data, essential to understand their evolution, will also be presented. It is also very important to be able to understand how best to manage this category of loans, and for this reason the most important NPL management strategies will be discussed, highlighting pros and cons and areas of application. Among these, we will focus on securitisation, the most widely used management method. Its main types and areas of application will then be defined. Attention will then be focused on the most significant ones in the Italian market in the last decade, through a quantitative, qualitative and cross-sectional analysis. Finally, the impact of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, on NPL management will be assessed.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/235603