Transport is the end-use sector with the highest reliance on fossil fuels globally. At a European level, transport is responsible for as much as a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions, whereby road transport is the main contributor. To decarbonize the sector, the European Union envisages a 100% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from new passenger cars and light-duty vehicles by 2035. Such new fleet-wide target poses a significant challenge for vehicle manufacturers since, to date, more than 95% of road transport is powered by diesel and petrol engines. In the face of such challenge, several European governments voiced concerns over the timeline and technological neutrality over this European measure. As a result of an agreed upcoming review of the target, biofuels, e-fuels, and electrically-powered vehicles may come to play new roles in the transport mix, entailing considerable changes in national energy production mixes. This research examines the possible long-term decarbonization scenarios for the Italian light duty road transport sector and the attendant energy value chain, based on the current policies and political negotiations. First, the international, European, and Italian policies constraining the future development of the Italian road transport sector and its related energy value chain are identified. Second, an analysis of the negotiation process of regulation 2023/851 setting the 2035 target effectively banning diesel and petrol vehicles is conducted. This allows to identify the main negotiation parties, their strategies, and the main negotiation options currently on the table. Third, System Dynamics modelling is used to crisply operationalize the parties’ negotiation options into light-duty road transport long-term scenarios. Fourth, Energy System Optimization Modelling is utilized to characterize the impact of such scenarios in the national energy system.
I trasporti sono il settore con la maggiore dipendenza dai combustibili fossili a livello globale. A livello europeo, i trasporti sono responsabili di un quarto delle emissioni totali di gas serra, e il trasporto su strada è il principale responsabile. Per la decarbonizzazione del settore, l'Unione Europea prevede una riduzione del 100% delle emissioni di anidride carbonica delle nuove autovetture e veicoli commerciali leggeri entro il 2035. Questo nuovo obiettivo per l'intera flotta rappresenta una sfida importante per i produttori di veicoli, poiché, ad oggi, oltre il 95% del trasporto su strada è alimentato da motori diesel e benzina. Di fronte a tale sfida, diversi governi europei hanno espresso preoccupazione per la tempistica e la neutralità tecnologica di questa misura europea. A seguito di una prossima revisione concordata dell'obiettivo, i biocarburanti, gli e-fuel e i veicoli a propulsione elettrica potrebbero assumere nuovi ruoli nel mix dei trasporti, comportando notevoli cambiamenti nei mix di produzione energetica nazionali. Questa ricerca esamina i possibili scenari di decarbonizzazione a lungo termine per il settore del trasporto leggero su strada italiano e la relativa filiera energetica, sulla base delle attuali leggi e dei negoziati politici. In primo luogo, vengono identificate le politiche internazionali, europee e italiane che vincolano lo sviluppo futuro del settore del trasporto su strada italiano e della relativa filiera energetica. In secondo luogo, viene condotta un'analisi del processo negoziale del regolamento 2023/851 che fissa l'obiettivo al 2035 di vietare di fatto i veicoli diesel e benzina. Sono identificate i principali attori negoziali, le loro strategie e le principali opzioni negoziali sul tavolo. In terzo luogo, le opzioni negoziali delle parti sono rese operative attraverso System Dynamics Modelling in scenari a lungo termine per il trasporto leggero su strada. Infine, l'impatto di tali scenari sul sistema energetico nazionale è caratterizzato attraverso energy system optimization modelling.
Modelling green transition pathways with cross-sectoral linkages at nation-wide scale. The decarbonization of italian light duty road transport by 2050: a policy and negotiation analysis
Cruz Torres, Francesco
2024/2025
Abstract
Transport is the end-use sector with the highest reliance on fossil fuels globally. At a European level, transport is responsible for as much as a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions, whereby road transport is the main contributor. To decarbonize the sector, the European Union envisages a 100% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from new passenger cars and light-duty vehicles by 2035. Such new fleet-wide target poses a significant challenge for vehicle manufacturers since, to date, more than 95% of road transport is powered by diesel and petrol engines. In the face of such challenge, several European governments voiced concerns over the timeline and technological neutrality over this European measure. As a result of an agreed upcoming review of the target, biofuels, e-fuels, and electrically-powered vehicles may come to play new roles in the transport mix, entailing considerable changes in national energy production mixes. This research examines the possible long-term decarbonization scenarios for the Italian light duty road transport sector and the attendant energy value chain, based on the current policies and political negotiations. First, the international, European, and Italian policies constraining the future development of the Italian road transport sector and its related energy value chain are identified. Second, an analysis of the negotiation process of regulation 2023/851 setting the 2035 target effectively banning diesel and petrol vehicles is conducted. This allows to identify the main negotiation parties, their strategies, and the main negotiation options currently on the table. Third, System Dynamics modelling is used to crisply operationalize the parties’ negotiation options into light-duty road transport long-term scenarios. Fourth, Energy System Optimization Modelling is utilized to characterize the impact of such scenarios in the national energy system.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Cruz Torres, 2025 - Modelling Green Transition Pathways with Cross-Sectoral Linkages at Nation-wide Scale.pdf
non accessibile
Dimensione
4.72 MB
Formato
Adobe PDF
|
4.72 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizza/Apri |
I documenti in POLITesi sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
https://hdl.handle.net/10589/241337