The global energy transition is driven by ambitious European targets, formalised in the Green Deal and the ‘Fit-for-55’ package, which aim to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Achieving this goal requires a radical transformation of electricity systems, based on high penetration of generation from variable renewable sources. At the national level, these directives are implemented by the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC). This new operating paradigm introduces unprecedented challenges for frequency stability and grid balancing, underscoring the need for new approaches to reserve sizing beyond traditional methods. In this context, the study presents a quantitative comparative analysis of two methodologies for sizing non-spinning tertiary reserves: a deterministic-empirical approach and a probabilistic approach based on convolution. The methods were applied to a historical scenario for 2023 and a projected scenario for 2040. The results show a substantial increase in reserve requirements. The deterministic method estimates an increase of +149% for upward reserves and +275% for downward reserves. The probabilistic method, on the other hand, projects increases of +108% and +208% respectively. A key result in 2040 is a reversal of methodological conservatism: in this scenario, the deterministic approach overestimates the upward reserve requirement by 15.1% and the downward reserve requirement by 14.4% compared to the probabilistic model. The analysis also identifies a structural transition in the system, where the downward reserve requirement becomes predominant due to massive photovoltaic generation. The economic analysis, based on 2023 market prices, shows a clear divergence. In 2023, the deterministic approach offers savings of €273 million. However, the situation is reversed in 2040: in this scenario, adopting the probabilistic model would result in annual savings of approximately €2.29 billion. The study provides operators and regulators with guidance for selecting the most suitable reserve-sizing methods for planning and operating future electricity systems with high renewable penetration.
La transizione energetica globale è guidata da ambiziosi obiettivi europei, formalizzati nel Green Deal e nel pacchetto 'Fit-for-55', che mirano a conseguire la neutralità climatica entro il 2050. Il raggiungimento di tale obiettivo richiede una trasformazione radicale dei sistemi elettrici, basata su un’elevata penetrazione della generazione da fonti rinnovabili variabili. A livello nazionale, tali direttive sono attuate tramite il Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima (PNIEC). Questo nuovo paradigma operativo introduce sfide senza precedenti per la stabilità di frequenza e il bilanciamento della rete, evidenziando la necessità di nuovi approcci al dimensionamento delle riserve oltre i metodi tradizionali. In questo contesto, lo studio presenta un’analisi comparativa quantitativa di due metodologie per il dimensionamento delle riserve terziarie non rotanti: un approccio deterministico-empirico e un approccio probabilistico basato sulla convoluzione. I metodi sono stati applicati a uno scenario storico per il 2023 e a uno scenario prospettico per il 2040. I risultati mostrano un aumento sostanziale dei requisiti di riserva. Il metodo deterministico stima un incremento di +149% per le riserve a salire e di +275% per le riserve a scendere. Il metodo probabilistico, invece, prevede aumenti rispettivamente di +108% e +208%. Un risultato chiave nel 2040 è un’inversione della conservatività metodologica: in questo scenario, l’approccio deterministico sovrastima il fabbisogno di riserva a salire del 15.1% e il fabbisogno di riserva a scendere del 14.4% rispetto al modello probabilistico. L’analisi identifica inoltre una transizione strutturale del sistema, in cui il fabbisogno di riserva a scendere diventa predominante a causa della massiccia generazione fotovoltaica. L’analisi economica, basata sui prezzi di mercato del 2023, mostra una chiara divergenza. Nel 2023, l’approccio deterministico offre risparmi pari a €273 milioni. Tuttavia, la situazione si inverte nel 2040: in questo scenario, l’adozione del modello probabilistico determinerebbe risparmi annuali di circa €2.29 miliardi. Lo studio fornisce a operatori e regolatori indicazioni per la selezione delle metodologie di dimensionamento delle riserve più idonee alla pianificazione e alla gestione dei futuri sistemi elettrici ad alta penetrazione di fonti rinnovabili.
Dimensioning operating reserves for the italian power system in a decarbonized 2040 scenario: a comparative methodological analysis
EL HIDOUDI, NADIA
2024/2025
Abstract
The global energy transition is driven by ambitious European targets, formalised in the Green Deal and the ‘Fit-for-55’ package, which aim to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Achieving this goal requires a radical transformation of electricity systems, based on high penetration of generation from variable renewable sources. At the national level, these directives are implemented by the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC). This new operating paradigm introduces unprecedented challenges for frequency stability and grid balancing, underscoring the need for new approaches to reserve sizing beyond traditional methods. In this context, the study presents a quantitative comparative analysis of two methodologies for sizing non-spinning tertiary reserves: a deterministic-empirical approach and a probabilistic approach based on convolution. The methods were applied to a historical scenario for 2023 and a projected scenario for 2040. The results show a substantial increase in reserve requirements. The deterministic method estimates an increase of +149% for upward reserves and +275% for downward reserves. The probabilistic method, on the other hand, projects increases of +108% and +208% respectively. A key result in 2040 is a reversal of methodological conservatism: in this scenario, the deterministic approach overestimates the upward reserve requirement by 15.1% and the downward reserve requirement by 14.4% compared to the probabilistic model. The analysis also identifies a structural transition in the system, where the downward reserve requirement becomes predominant due to massive photovoltaic generation. The economic analysis, based on 2023 market prices, shows a clear divergence. In 2023, the deterministic approach offers savings of €273 million. However, the situation is reversed in 2040: in this scenario, adopting the probabilistic model would result in annual savings of approximately €2.29 billion. The study provides operators and regulators with guidance for selecting the most suitable reserve-sizing methods for planning and operating future electricity systems with high renewable penetration.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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2025_10_Elhidoudi.pdf
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/243464