Climate change represents an increasingly urgent global challenge, driven by record-high greenhouse gas emissions from energy-intensive and hard-to-abate sectors, highlighting the need for low-carbon solutions. Hydrogen is emerging as a practical means to decarbonize these sectors, particularly when produced via high-temperature steam electrolysis(HTSE) using solid oxide cell technology due to its high efficiency. The effectiveness of hydrogen in achieving decarbonization depends on the energy source used; nuclear power provides a low-carbon, continuous supply of electricity and heat, making it an ideal partner for HTSE. Integrated HTSE plants can therefore leverage Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), which are well suited due to their moderate power output, high capacity factor, operational flexibility, and modular nature, enabling closer alignment between hydrogen generation and demand. Preliminary studies on the financial viability of SMR + HTSE systems are essential given the high upfront capital costs, typical of nuclear builds, and economic uncertainties associated with novel hydrogen production pathways. Such studies allow assessment of investment risks, optimization of system design, and evaluation of potential revenue streams, providing crucial insights for technically and economically sustainable deployment. This study presents a multi-case scenario analysis, both on- and off-grid, evaluating unit cost metrics (LCOE and LCOH) and financial indicators (NPV, PBP, and IRR) for constructing an integrated SMR + HTSE plant in Lombardy, including an investigation of potential improvements from transitioning from a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) to a nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) nuclear build. Additionally, a sensitivity for unit cost metrics and financial indicators was performed on all the parameters involved. The results indicate promising economic and financial prospects for both FOAK and NOAK cases. Sensitivity analyses highlight the dominant influence of SMR capital expenditures across all evaluated metrics, as well as the significant impact of hydrogen market prices on financial performance indicators. Future work will focus on refining cost assumptions, exploring alternative deployment scenarios and conducting a deeper analysis of the policy environment required to enable effective large-scale deployment.
Il cambiamento climatico rappresenta un’impellente sfida, alimentata dalle emissioni record di gas serra provenienti da settori ad alto consumo energetico. Ciò evidenzia la necessità di soluzioni a basse emissioni di carbonio; fra queste l'idrogeno sta emergendo come un mezzo pratico per decarbonizzare tali settori, in particolare se prodotto tramite elettrolisi a vapore ad alta temperatura (HTSE) grazie alla sua elevata efficienza. L'efficacia dell'idrogeno nel raggiungimento della decarbonizzazione dipende dalla fonte energetica utilizzata; l'energia nucleare fornisce un approvvigionamento continuo di elettricità e calore a basse emissioni di carbonio, rendendola un partner ideale per l'HTSE. L’accoppiamento di HTSE con reattori modulari (SMRs) di piccole dimensioni risulta particolarmente vantaggioso data la potenza moderata, l'elevato fattore di capacità, la flessibilità operativa e la natura modulare di quest’ultimi. Studi preliminari sulla fattibilità finanziaria dei sistemi SMR + HTSE sono di vitale importanza, dati gli elevati costi di capitale iniziali, tipici delle costruzioni nucleari, e le incertezze economiche associate alle nuove tecnologie di produzione dell'idrogeno. Tali studi consentono di valutare i rischi di investimento, ottimizzare la progettazione del sistema e valutare i potenziali flussi di entrate, fornendo informazioni cruciali per un'implementazione sostenibile dal punto di vista tecnico ed economico. Questa tesi, pertanto analizza scenari multipli, sia on-grid che off-grid, valutando sia parametri di costo unitario (LCOE e LCOH) che indicatori finanziari (NPV, PBP e IRR) per la costruzione di un impianto integrato SMR + HTSE in Lombardia, compresa un'indagine sui potenziali miglioramenti derivanti dal passaggio da una costruzione nucleare first-of-a-kind a una nth-of-a-kind e analisi di sensitività associata a tutti i parametri citati. I risultati indicano prospettive economiche e finanziarie promettenti sia per il caso FOAK che per quello NOAK. Le analisi di sensibilità evidenziano l'influenza dominante delle spese in conto capitale SMR su tutti i parametri valutati, nonché l'impatto significativo dei prezzi di mercato dell'idrogeno sugli indicatori di performance finanziaria. Il lavoro futuro si concentrerà sul miglioramento delle ipotesi di costo, su scenari di implementazione alternativi e su un'analisi più approfondita delle politiche necessarie per consentire un'efficace implementazione su larga scala.
Economic and financial analysis of nuclear-driven hydrogen production
LORUSSO, NICCOLO'
2025/2026
Abstract
Climate change represents an increasingly urgent global challenge, driven by record-high greenhouse gas emissions from energy-intensive and hard-to-abate sectors, highlighting the need for low-carbon solutions. Hydrogen is emerging as a practical means to decarbonize these sectors, particularly when produced via high-temperature steam electrolysis(HTSE) using solid oxide cell technology due to its high efficiency. The effectiveness of hydrogen in achieving decarbonization depends on the energy source used; nuclear power provides a low-carbon, continuous supply of electricity and heat, making it an ideal partner for HTSE. Integrated HTSE plants can therefore leverage Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), which are well suited due to their moderate power output, high capacity factor, operational flexibility, and modular nature, enabling closer alignment between hydrogen generation and demand. Preliminary studies on the financial viability of SMR + HTSE systems are essential given the high upfront capital costs, typical of nuclear builds, and economic uncertainties associated with novel hydrogen production pathways. Such studies allow assessment of investment risks, optimization of system design, and evaluation of potential revenue streams, providing crucial insights for technically and economically sustainable deployment. This study presents a multi-case scenario analysis, both on- and off-grid, evaluating unit cost metrics (LCOE and LCOH) and financial indicators (NPV, PBP, and IRR) for constructing an integrated SMR + HTSE plant in Lombardy, including an investigation of potential improvements from transitioning from a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) to a nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) nuclear build. Additionally, a sensitivity for unit cost metrics and financial indicators was performed on all the parameters involved. The results indicate promising economic and financial prospects for both FOAK and NOAK cases. Sensitivity analyses highlight the dominant influence of SMR capital expenditures across all evaluated metrics, as well as the significant impact of hydrogen market prices on financial performance indicators. Future work will focus on refining cost assumptions, exploring alternative deployment scenarios and conducting a deeper analysis of the policy environment required to enable effective large-scale deployment.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/253755