The insurance sector is undergoing a profound transformation driven by two major forces: the pervasive diffusion of digital technologies among individuals and organizations, and the emergence of new systemic risks, such as those linked to climate change, increasingly affecting both households and businesses. These forces are reshaping insurance processes, products, and business models, as incumbents, further pressured by the rise of Insurtech players, are compelled to innovate in order to meet the growing demands for efficiency and speed brought by digitalization, while simultaneously preserving the boundaries of insurability. Such dynamics are testing the theoretical foundations of insurance as a risk-transfer mechanism and prompting an evolution from ex-post compensation toward ex-ante prevention and risk mitigation. Against this backdrop, this PhD thesis addresses the overarching research question: How are digital transformation and the evolving risk landscape impacting the insurance sector? To explore this complex phenomenon, the thesis adopts a multi-actor perspective and a multi-method research design, integrating qualitative and quantitative methodologies across three empirical studies. The first study explores how incumbent insurers pursue innovation within legacy constraints, revealing three co-existing innovation paths, reactive, interpretative, and visionary, through which technology evolves from an operational enabler to a strategic initiator of change. The second study investigates the value logic of Insurtech startups, identifying four distinct business model patterns - Data-Driven Leaders, Seamless Ecosystem Integrators, Customized Coverage Innovators, and Digital Distribution Specialists - that together form a layered architecture of value creation reshaping the industry’s value logic. The third study analyses citizens’ adoption of climate insurance across Europe, showing that experiencing economic losses transforms abstract climate risks into tangible economic consequences, reducing the intention–action gap and triggering higher insurance uptake compared to mere hazard experience or perceived risk. Moreover, it highlights that the design of public compensation schemes, rather than their mere presence, influences insurance participation. The PhD thesis argues that a sustainable industry innovation arises from the integrated alignment of internal transformation (incumbents), entrepreneurial experimentation (startups), and societal adaptation (citizens). Theoretically, it advances an integrated, multi-level understanding of how technology, strategy, and behaviour co-evolve to sustain insurability in an era of technological acceleration and climate uncertainty. Practically, it offers guidance for incumbents, startups, and policymakers on how to design innovation strategies, collaborative architectures, and institutional frameworks that enhance both competitiveness and societal resilience in the face of emerging risks.
Il settore assicurativo sta attraversando una profonda trasformazione guidata da due forze principali: la diffusione delle tecnologie digitali tra individui e organizzazioni, e l'emergere di nuovi rischi sistemici, come quelli legati al cambiamento climatico, che colpiscono in misura crescente sia le famiglie che le imprese. Queste forze stanno ridisegnando i processi, i prodotti e i modelli di business assicurativi: gli operatori tradizionali, ulteriormente pressati dall'ascesa degli attori Insurtech, sono spinti ad innovare per rispondere alle crescenti esigenze di efficienza e rapidità introdotte dalla digitalizzazione, preservando al contempo i confini dell'assicurabilità. Tali dinamiche mettono alla prova i fondamenti teorici dell'assicurazione come meccanismo di trasferimento del rischio e promuovono un'evoluzione dalla compensazione ex-post verso la prevenzione e la mitigazione del rischio ex-ante. In questo contesto, la presente tesi di dottorato affronta la seguente domanda di ricerca: In che modo la trasformazione digitale e l'evoluzione del panorama dei rischi stanno impattando il settore assicurativo? Per esplorare questo fenomeno complesso, la tesi adotta una prospettiva multi-attore e un disegno di ricerca multi-metodo, integrando metodologie qualitative e quantitative attraverso tre studi empirici. Il primo studio esplora come gli assicuratori tradizionali perseguano l'innovazione all'interno dei vincoli legacy, rivelando tre percorsi di innovazione co-esistenti, reattivo, interpretativo e visionario, attraverso i quali la tecnologia evolve da abilitatore operativo a iniziatore strategico del cambiamento. Il secondo studio analizza la logica di valore delle startup Insurtech, identificando quattro distinti pattern di modello di business, Data-Driven Leaders, Seamless Ecosystem Integrators, Customized Coverage Innovators e Digital Distribution Specialists, che insieme formano un'architettura stratificata di creazione del valore, ridisegnando la logica di valore del settore. Il terzo studio analizza l'adozione dell'assicurazione climatica da parte dei cittadini europei, mostrando come l'esperienza di perdite economiche trasformi i rischi climatici astratti in conseguenze economiche concrete, riducendo il divario tra intenzione e azione e determinando una maggiore propensione all'acquisto assicurativo rispetto alla semplice esperienza del pericolo o al rischio percepito. Evidenzia inoltre come la struttura degli schemi di compensazione pubblica, più che la loro mera presenza, influenzi la partecipazione assicurativa. La tesi di dottorato sostiene che un'innovazione industriale sostenibile emerge dall'allineamento integrato tra trasformazione interna (operatori tradizionali), sperimentazione imprenditoriale (startup) e adattamento sociale (cittadini). Sul piano teorico, contribuisce a una comprensione integrata e multi-livello di come tecnologia, strategia e comportamento co-evolvano per sostenere l'assicurabilità in un'era di accelerazione tecnologica e incertezza climatica. Sul piano pratico, offre indicazioni a operatori tradizionali, startup e responsabili politici su come progettare strategie di innovazione, architetture collaborative e quadri istituzionali in grado di rafforzare sia la competitività che la resilienza sociale di fronte ai rischi emergenti.
From digitalization to climate resilience: exploring the transformation of the insurance industry
CARRAI, LUCA
2025/2026
Abstract
The insurance sector is undergoing a profound transformation driven by two major forces: the pervasive diffusion of digital technologies among individuals and organizations, and the emergence of new systemic risks, such as those linked to climate change, increasingly affecting both households and businesses. These forces are reshaping insurance processes, products, and business models, as incumbents, further pressured by the rise of Insurtech players, are compelled to innovate in order to meet the growing demands for efficiency and speed brought by digitalization, while simultaneously preserving the boundaries of insurability. Such dynamics are testing the theoretical foundations of insurance as a risk-transfer mechanism and prompting an evolution from ex-post compensation toward ex-ante prevention and risk mitigation. Against this backdrop, this PhD thesis addresses the overarching research question: How are digital transformation and the evolving risk landscape impacting the insurance sector? To explore this complex phenomenon, the thesis adopts a multi-actor perspective and a multi-method research design, integrating qualitative and quantitative methodologies across three empirical studies. The first study explores how incumbent insurers pursue innovation within legacy constraints, revealing three co-existing innovation paths, reactive, interpretative, and visionary, through which technology evolves from an operational enabler to a strategic initiator of change. The second study investigates the value logic of Insurtech startups, identifying four distinct business model patterns - Data-Driven Leaders, Seamless Ecosystem Integrators, Customized Coverage Innovators, and Digital Distribution Specialists - that together form a layered architecture of value creation reshaping the industry’s value logic. The third study analyses citizens’ adoption of climate insurance across Europe, showing that experiencing economic losses transforms abstract climate risks into tangible economic consequences, reducing the intention–action gap and triggering higher insurance uptake compared to mere hazard experience or perceived risk. Moreover, it highlights that the design of public compensation schemes, rather than their mere presence, influences insurance participation. The PhD thesis argues that a sustainable industry innovation arises from the integrated alignment of internal transformation (incumbents), entrepreneurial experimentation (startups), and societal adaptation (citizens). Theoretically, it advances an integrated, multi-level understanding of how technology, strategy, and behaviour co-evolve to sustain insurability in an era of technological acceleration and climate uncertainty. Practically, it offers guidance for incumbents, startups, and policymakers on how to design innovation strategies, collaborative architectures, and institutional frameworks that enhance both competitiveness and societal resilience in the face of emerging risks.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/257557