In a context where climate change, with global warming caused by GHG emissions, is recognized, merchant ships are going to be pushed to reduce their CO2 level of emissions. Then new legislation on air pollutants emissions limits is going to have a great influence on how the shipping market will evolve. At the same time crude oil price is high and is probably going to be even higher, increasing fuel costs for a ship. So this is a time of great uncertainty for the shipping world. Nuclear technology could be the solution to both the challenges the shipping world is going to face, because: it won’t cause air pollutant or GHG emissions and costs for operating a nuclear reactor aren’t dependent on crude oil price. Those two advantages nuclear has, are surrounded by a favorable context: merchant ships are becoming bigger and bigger and nuclear technology is developing small reactors (SMR). This thesis first of all analyzed past and present nuclear ships. Then it analyzed the world merchant fleet and what is the outlook for the shipping market: from the analysis it was identified as potentially favorable for nuclear propulsion a post-2020 scenario, for very large ships. The most suitable reactors were identified: RITM-200 in the short term, G4M in the long term (2030). The influence of external factors has been discussed and it has been underlined how they are very relevant and often an obstacle. This thesis also selected the ships with the highest probability of being profitable if nuclear propelled and on which routes. Then, once identified the best scenarios, an economic analysis was made. This analysis clearly showed how the only type of ships with the possibility of being convenient if nuclear propelled, is that of container ships. But for this to be convenient, it’s necessary that crude oil price will reach values relevantly higher than its forecasted price.
In un contesto in cui il cambiamento climatico, con il surriscaldamento del pianeta causato dall’emissione di gas serra, è riconosciuto, le navi mercantili saranno spinte a ridurre il loro livello di emissione di CO2. Inoltre nuove norme sugli inquinanti atmosferici avranno una grande influenza sull’evoluzione del mercato marittimo. Allo stesso tempo il prezzo del petrolio greggio è elevato e probabilmente crescerà ancora di più, aumentando il costo del combustibile per navi. Si deduce che questo è un periodo di grande incertezza per il mondo del mercato marittimo. La tecnologia nucleare potrebbe essere la soluzione a entrambe le sfide che il mondo navale sta per affrontare, poiché non emette inquinanti atmosferici o gas serra e i costi operativi di un reattore nucleare non dipendono dal prezzo del petrolio. Questi due vantaggi che il nucleare ha, sono supportati da un contesto favorevole: le navi mercantili stanno diventando sempre di più grandi dimensioni e la tecnologia nucleare si sta rivolgendo verso reattori di piccola taglia (SMR). La tesi ha innanzitutto analizzato le navi nucleari passate ed esistenti. Successivamente ha analizzato la flotta mercantile mondiale e come il mercato marittimo si prospetta: dall’analisi è stato individuato come potenzialmente favorevole per il nucleare lo scenario post-2020, per navi di grandi dimensioni. Sono stati individuati i reattori più adatti allo scopo: RITM-200 a breve termine, G4M a lungo termine (dopo il 2030). L’influenza dei fattori esterni è stata trattata ed è stato evidenziato come siano molto rilevanti e di ostacolo. La tesi ha anche individuato quali sono le navi più adatte per la propulsione nucleare e su quali rotte. Quindi, una volta individuati gli scenari migliori, è stata svolta un’analisi economica. Questa analisi ha chiaramente indicato che l’unica tipologia di nave che ha la possibilità di essere conveniente se a propulsione nucleare, è quella delle navi portacontainer. Ma far sì che sia conveniente rispetto a una nave convenzionale, è necessario che il prezzo del petrolio raggiunga valori rilevantemente più elevati rispetto alle sue stime per il futuro.
Feasibility study of nuclear powered merchant ships
POLI, MICHELE
2012/2013
Abstract
In a context where climate change, with global warming caused by GHG emissions, is recognized, merchant ships are going to be pushed to reduce their CO2 level of emissions. Then new legislation on air pollutants emissions limits is going to have a great influence on how the shipping market will evolve. At the same time crude oil price is high and is probably going to be even higher, increasing fuel costs for a ship. So this is a time of great uncertainty for the shipping world. Nuclear technology could be the solution to both the challenges the shipping world is going to face, because: it won’t cause air pollutant or GHG emissions and costs for operating a nuclear reactor aren’t dependent on crude oil price. Those two advantages nuclear has, are surrounded by a favorable context: merchant ships are becoming bigger and bigger and nuclear technology is developing small reactors (SMR). This thesis first of all analyzed past and present nuclear ships. Then it analyzed the world merchant fleet and what is the outlook for the shipping market: from the analysis it was identified as potentially favorable for nuclear propulsion a post-2020 scenario, for very large ships. The most suitable reactors were identified: RITM-200 in the short term, G4M in the long term (2030). The influence of external factors has been discussed and it has been underlined how they are very relevant and often an obstacle. This thesis also selected the ships with the highest probability of being profitable if nuclear propelled and on which routes. Then, once identified the best scenarios, an economic analysis was made. This analysis clearly showed how the only type of ships with the possibility of being convenient if nuclear propelled, is that of container ships. But for this to be convenient, it’s necessary that crude oil price will reach values relevantly higher than its forecasted price.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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FINALE POLI.pdf
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Descrizione: Testo della tesi
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/81325