Recent rises in the price of electrical energy have drawn incredible attention to Italian Electricity Markets. These marketplaces have experienced drastic changes in past years, mainly driven by the desire to transition to a more sustainable and green economy, which entailed the growing diffusion of power plants fueled by non-programmable Renewable Energy Sources. Indeed, these units are able to produce much cheaper and cleaner energy than traditional CCGT power plants but are causing a sharp increase in the measures required for the regulation of the Power System, with balancing resources that have to be procured by Terna, the Italian Transmission System Operator (TSO), on the Ancillary Services Market (MSD). The following master’s thesis has the aim to provide a wide-ranging analysis of MSD, thanks to a thorough study of the offer profiles submitted by the Production Units operating in Northern Italy. In particular, the work will be focused on the specific service denoted as "GR1" on MSD ex-ante, considering bids of both upward and downward types. These offers will be interpreted on the basis of many predictors, including both endogenous and exogenous data to the electricity markets. Our findings confirmed the intricacy of the market MSD and showed how different operators tend to manage their power plants in various ways, with disparate degrees of both variability and effectiveness of the submitted bids. Furthermore, the presented results combine the technical knowledge of the departments of Energy and Mathematics of Politecnico di Milano and the practical experience on electricity markets of the Research Institute RSE, which supported the initial portion of the work.
I recenti aumenti del prezzo dell'energia elettrica hanno attirato un'incredibile attenzione sui mercati elettrici italiani. Questi hanno inoltre subito drastici cambiamenti negli ultimi anni, spinti principalmente dal desiderio di transizione verso un'economia più sostenibile e green, che ha comportato la crescente diffusione di centrali elettriche alimentate da fonti energetiche Rinnovabili di tipo non programmabile. Le unità di questo tipo sono infatti in grado di produrre energia molto più economica e pulita rispetto alle tradizionali centrali termoelettriche, ma stanno determinando un forte aumento delle misure necessarie per la regolazione del Sistema Energetico, con risorse di bilanciamento che devono essere procurate da Terna, il gestore di trasmissione energetica italiano (denominato, in inglese, TSO), sul Mercato dei Servizi di Dispacciamento (MSD). La seguente tesi di Laurea Magistrale si pone come scopo quello di fornire un'analisi ad ampio raggio di MSD, grazie ad uno studio approfondito dei profili di offerta presentati dalle Unità Produttive operanti nel Nord Italia. In particolare, il lavoro si focalizza sullo specifico servizio denominato “gradino 1” (GR1) su MSD ex-ante, considerando offerte sia al rialzo che al ribasso. In aggiunta, le offerte saranno interpretate sulla base di molti predittori, incluse variabili sia endogene che esogene ai mercati dell'energia elettrica. Le nostre analisi confermano sostanzialmente la grande complessità del mercato MSD e mostrano come vari operatori tendano a gestire le proprie centrali elettriche in maniera differente, con diversi gradi sia di variabilità che di efficacia delle offerte presentate. Infine, i risultati esposti uniscono le conoscenze tecniche dei dipartimenti di Energia e Matematica del Politecnico di Milano, con l'esperienza pratica sui mercati energetici dell'Istituto di Ricerca RSE, il quale ha supportato tutta la parte iniziale del lavoro di tesi.
Prediction and interpretation of bids in the Italian electricity market for ancillary services
Pasotti, Andrea
2020/2021
Abstract
Recent rises in the price of electrical energy have drawn incredible attention to Italian Electricity Markets. These marketplaces have experienced drastic changes in past years, mainly driven by the desire to transition to a more sustainable and green economy, which entailed the growing diffusion of power plants fueled by non-programmable Renewable Energy Sources. Indeed, these units are able to produce much cheaper and cleaner energy than traditional CCGT power plants but are causing a sharp increase in the measures required for the regulation of the Power System, with balancing resources that have to be procured by Terna, the Italian Transmission System Operator (TSO), on the Ancillary Services Market (MSD). The following master’s thesis has the aim to provide a wide-ranging analysis of MSD, thanks to a thorough study of the offer profiles submitted by the Production Units operating in Northern Italy. In particular, the work will be focused on the specific service denoted as "GR1" on MSD ex-ante, considering bids of both upward and downward types. These offers will be interpreted on the basis of many predictors, including both endogenous and exogenous data to the electricity markets. Our findings confirmed the intricacy of the market MSD and showed how different operators tend to manage their power plants in various ways, with disparate degrees of both variability and effectiveness of the submitted bids. Furthermore, the presented results combine the technical knowledge of the departments of Energy and Mathematics of Politecnico di Milano and the practical experience on electricity markets of the Research Institute RSE, which supported the initial portion of the work.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/183348