The aim of this work is to develop a model to estimate liquid hydrogen aircraft capital invested and operational costs, in order to assess their economic feasibility. Since these should replace existing kerosene aircraft, the model was also applied to con- ventional aircraft to determine cost differences. The reference aircraft chosen are the ATR72-600, the Airbus A320 and the A350-900. The design data of both air- craft, were obtained with the preliminary sizing tool HYPERION. At the beginning follows an introduction to hydrogen, to explain why the industry is focusing of this new energy source and to give an overview of the new aircraft subsystems layout. Flying hydrogen, also implies changes in the airport system. To evaluate cost at a preliminary stage design, when only few parameters are known, a usual standard is to use DOC models. Among five models, ’TUB’ model was chosen because it is used in literature to derive costs for hydrogen powered aircraft. To keep into account the acquisition of additional systems like cryogenic tank, fuel cell, these were included separately to consider their different life cycle. During the operational life of an aircraft, costs relative to fuel represents a huge contributor. Especially on green liquid hydrogen a lot of uncertainties regarding the price at the dispenser aroused, so it was worth investigating the dependency of the aircraft operational expenses on fuel price. To understand its competitiveness with the kerosene powered one, they were compared both on the same mission, representative of their market segment. Afterwards, two different financial target, EBITDA margin and Operational Profit per passenger, were set to evaluate revenues and give an approximate value of a hypothetical ticket price. Since the model outputs differ in a not negligible way, a further market research was done to evaluate how much actually airlines charge for the same mission. Concluding, a market penetration scenario is envisioned: it in- vestigates actual and future passenger demand and the reasons behind its expected growth; possible entry into service and future buyers, with a special attention on the leasing business. Headwinds that airlines need to tackle right now are outlined.
Lo scopo di questo lavoro è sviluppare un modello per stimare i costi operativi di aerei alimentati ad idrogeno, per determinare il loro impatto economico. Siccome quest’ultimi dovrebbero sostituire quelli alimentati a kerosene, il modello è stato applicato anche a loro per determinare le differenze. I veivoli di riferimento sono il regionale ATR72-600, l’Airbus A320 e l’Airbus A350-900. I dati di design sono stati ottenuti tramite il tool HYPERION, sviluppato nel contesto del SIENA project. All’inizio segue una introduzione sull’idrogeno, perché l’industria sta puntando su questa fonte di energia e su come cambierebbe la configurazione dell’aereo. Volare a idrogeno implica anche cambiamenti al sistema aeroportuale. Per stimare i costi in questa fase preliminare di progetto, quando pochi parametri sono conosciuti, si è soliti usare i modelli DOC. Tra i cinque, ’TUB’ è stato scelto perché è già usato in letteratura per stimare i costi di aerei a idrogeno. Per considerare l’acquisto di parti aggiuntive, queste sono state aggiunte separatamente per tenere in consider- azione il loro differente ciclo di vita operativa. Nella vita operativa di un aereo, una gran parte di spese operative sono dovute al kerosene. Specialmente sul prezzo dell’idrogeno liquido al dispenser ci sono molte incertezze, quindi è sembrato oppor- tuno prevedere differenti scenari di prezzo. I modelli convenzionali e ad idrogeno sono stati comparati sulla stessa missione, rappresentativo del mercato. Successiva- mente, due obiettivi finanziari, EBITDA margine e Profitto Operativo per pax, sono stati posti per determinare i guadagni necessari e ipotizzare il prezzo del biglietto. Siccome i due metodi differiscono in termini di risultati, è stata fatta una ricerca sul web per capire quanto le compagnie fanno pagare per tratte simili alle missioni scelte. Concludendo, segue una analisi di mercato per capire una possibile entrata in servizio e possibili acquirenti. Sono inoltre menzionati gli ostacoli che affliggono le compagnie aeree.
Techno-economic review of hydrogen powered aircraft
BARCELLONA, SERGIO
2021/2022
Abstract
The aim of this work is to develop a model to estimate liquid hydrogen aircraft capital invested and operational costs, in order to assess their economic feasibility. Since these should replace existing kerosene aircraft, the model was also applied to con- ventional aircraft to determine cost differences. The reference aircraft chosen are the ATR72-600, the Airbus A320 and the A350-900. The design data of both air- craft, were obtained with the preliminary sizing tool HYPERION. At the beginning follows an introduction to hydrogen, to explain why the industry is focusing of this new energy source and to give an overview of the new aircraft subsystems layout. Flying hydrogen, also implies changes in the airport system. To evaluate cost at a preliminary stage design, when only few parameters are known, a usual standard is to use DOC models. Among five models, ’TUB’ model was chosen because it is used in literature to derive costs for hydrogen powered aircraft. To keep into account the acquisition of additional systems like cryogenic tank, fuel cell, these were included separately to consider their different life cycle. During the operational life of an aircraft, costs relative to fuel represents a huge contributor. Especially on green liquid hydrogen a lot of uncertainties regarding the price at the dispenser aroused, so it was worth investigating the dependency of the aircraft operational expenses on fuel price. To understand its competitiveness with the kerosene powered one, they were compared both on the same mission, representative of their market segment. Afterwards, two different financial target, EBITDA margin and Operational Profit per passenger, were set to evaluate revenues and give an approximate value of a hypothetical ticket price. Since the model outputs differ in a not negligible way, a further market research was done to evaluate how much actually airlines charge for the same mission. Concluding, a market penetration scenario is envisioned: it in- vestigates actual and future passenger demand and the reasons behind its expected growth; possible entry into service and future buyers, with a special attention on the leasing business. Headwinds that airlines need to tackle right now are outlined.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/10589/196943